Seattle Mariners ace Logan Gilbert highlights a chunky five-pack of pick recommendations for Wednesday's MLB slate.
Today's MLB props narrative: Gilbert has an excellent matchup and is at home, a great pitcher's park where he's thrived this year. I expect him to work deep and carve up the St. Louis Cardinals.
Check out my favourite MLB prop bets for Sept. 10, featuring predictions on Mookie Betts, Chris Sale, Logan Allen and Bobby Witt Jr.
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MLB prop bets
Best bet: Gilbert over 17.5 outs (-150)
I don't blame you if you don't like the price, but it's a lot worse elsewhere.
Gilbert has a dynamite matchup vs. the Cardinals, who are dead last in MLB in wRC+ since the all-star break.
St. Louis has gotten on base at a sub-.300 clip in the second half, which also ranks 30th among the MLB clubs.
Now factor in this game is at T-Mobile Park, arguably the No. 1 pitching environment in baseball, and I'm not expecting this to be a night where the Cardinals' offence gets going.
- Gilbert has been dominant at home in Seattle, pitching to a 2.15 ERA and holding opponents to a .141 batting average.
- Since getting obliterated Aug. 18, Gilbert has thrown six innings in three consecutive starts, allowing five total runs while striking out 26 and walking four.
Key stat: Gilbert is 5-2 vs. this line since the start of August.
Best MLB picks
Betts over 1.5 total bases (-105): This marks the third straight night I've been in on this prop. Until I'm given good reason not to touch Betts around even money, I'll keep playing him on this market.
And Colorado Rockies lefty Kyle Freeland is not good enough reason.
Freeland is coming off a dominant start against the San Diego Padres (8.0 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 10 K). And he has handled Betts well over a large sample (.205 BA in 41 career plate appearances) in the past.
But Betts is cooking and I'm all aboard the Mookie train.
The Los Angeles Dodgers star is having his best stretch of the season, batting .300/.364/.580 over the last 15 days.
Going back a bit further, Betts has cleared this line 18 times in his last 30 games.
Witt to score (-104): The Kansas City Royals star has been slow to start the month but is coming off an excellent August and remains one of the most dynamic hitters in the sport.
I like his chances against Allen, the Cleveland Guardians southpaw who has been hit significantly harder by righties over his three-year career.
Witt has thrived with the platoon advantage (.325 BA, .391 OBP) and has consistently done his part to be a scoring threat on a nightly basis.
The shortstop has recorded two-plus bases more frequently than any player this season, per Team Rankings, and is getting on base at a .368 clip in the second half.
MLB prop bets: Wednesday's best pitching props
Allen under 17.5 outs (-115): A good pitcher's park against a weak offence works in Allen's favour tonight.
But the factors working against him are why I'm on this under.
- Allen has made six starts since August, clearing this line once.
- He has a 5.87 ERA over that six-game stretch and has allowed 17 runs over his last three outings.
- Allen has gone under this total in 17 of his 26 starts.
On top of that, Cleveland has a strong bullpen (No. 5 in second-half ERA) and is in the wild-card hunt.
The Guardians have gotten eight innings out of their starters in consecutive games, so that excellent bullpen should be well-rested and ready to be deployed.
Sale over 6.5 Ks (-118): This is all about Sale, not his opponent, the Chicago Cubs.
Chicago is a difficult matchup on K props, but I'm focusing on Sale's upside here.
The veteran lefty has made two starts since coming off the injured list and dominated both:
- Vs. SEA: 6.2 IP, 4 H, 1 R, 9 K
- @ PHI: 6.0 IP, 3 H, 1 R, 1 BB, 9 K
- Sale vs. a 6.5 K line: 6-0 over his last six and 13-4 on the season.
- He's hovering or above the 90th percentile in chase, whiff and K rates.
Among pitchers who have thrown at least 100 innings, the only arms with a higher K% are Gilbert, Zack Wheeler and Tarik Skubal.
MLB prop picks made at 10:15 a.m. ET on 09/10/2025.
