The Toronto Blue Jays look for a series win over the Houston Astros on Tuesday.
The pregame narrative: Toronto authored a two-run, ninth-inning comeback last night to extend its AL East lead to three. The Blue Jays are slight favourites with Jose Berrios pitching opposite Jason Alexander. The Astros have won Alexander's last seven starts despite some horrific underlying numbers.
Check out my Blue Jays best bets vs. the Astros for Sept. 10, including props on Addison Barger.
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Blue Jays best bets vs. Astros
Best bet: Blue Jays over 4.5 runs (-110)
Toronto's offence wasn't at its best yesterday, but it still came through in the clutch.
The Jays were no-hit through five innings and ultimately finished with seven knocks and four runs, scoring the winner in extras.
I expect that momentum to carry over into a plus matchup tonight. Check out how Toronto's offence has ranked since the all-star break:
- 5.81 runs per game (first)
- .288 average (first)
- .354 on-base percentage (first)
- .487 slugging percentage (first)
- 133 wrC+ (first)
Yep, that'll play.
Obviously, there is a glaring omission in the lineup with MLB's hit leader, Bo Bichette, sidelined. He can create a boatload of offence on his own, but I still think the Jays should chase Alexander tonight.
The Astros' righty has a 4.68 ERA on the season and has given up six home runs in his last four games. Alexander also ranks in the bottom-20th percentile in xERA, xBA, chase rate and hard-hit rate, per Baseball Savant.
Key stat: Toronto is averaging 5.30 runs per game at home this year (third-most in MLB).
Jays prop pick
Barger over 1.5 bases (+143): Barger has been in a slump, but profiles as the type of bat who can get after Alexander.
The sophomore third baseman has great pop, crushes right-handed pitching, and rakes at home.
- Barger ranks in the 75th percentile or higher in xSLG, average exit velocity, hard-hit rate and bat speed.
- He is slugging .483 against RHP and .475 at home.
Barger's biggest flaw is that he goes down on strikes and doesn't walk often. That's fine by me, though, as it demonstrates he's always looking to do damage and is unlikely to take a free pass (which wouldn't count toward this total).
Alexander has a 30th percentile K rate and is ceding a .282/.354/.542 slash line to left-hitting batters.
Blue Jays best bets made at 8:47 a.m. ET on 09/10/2025.
