A pair of NFC contenders kick off Week 2 on Thursday Night Football, as the Green Bay Packers host the Washington Commanders.
The pregame narrative: Green Bay earned a statement win over the Detroit Lions in Week 1, while the Washington Commanders made quick work of the New York Giants. In this short-week showdown at Lambeau Field, the Packers are 3.5-point favourites.
Check out my Commanders vs. Packers picks for the TNF matchup on Sept. 11, featuring prop bets on Romeo Doubs and Deebo Samuel.
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Commanders vs. Packers picks
Best bet: Doubs 40+ receiving yards (-121)
On a short week, the healthiest Packers receiver seems to be Doubs.
Green Bay didn't practice on Monday, but a trio of wideouts popped up on the injury report estimate: Matthew Golden (ankle, limited), Dontayvion Wicks (calf, limited) and Jayden Reed (foot, did not participate).
It's nice to see that Doubs, who battled concussion issues a season ago, came out of Week 1 with a clean bill of health.
In an offence believed to have a lot of WR2/3 options, Doubs has the best chance early in the season to achieve WR1 status.
- He had a 71% snap share in Week 1, per Football Guys. No other receiver was above 48%.
- Last week, Doubs had 92 of the 196 air yards (46.9%) obtained by Green Bay's WR corps.
Golden, Wicks and/or Reed could all come off the injury report before Thursday, but it's worth noting that Doubs seems to have a leg up on the rest of the WR room in terms of health.
And though the Packers had a quiet day in the passing game against the Lions, Doubs led the way with a pair of catches for 68 yards on four targets.
Until Golden's ascent as his rookie year progresses, I expect a healthy Doubs to be the lead dog of this group. With that in mind, 40 yards doesn't seem like much of an ask.
Key stat: Doubs went 8-5 vs. this yardage milestone in the regular season last year.
Thursday Night Football ATS pick
Packers -3.5 (-109): I hate the hook here, but I love what I saw out of the Packers in Week 1 against a Detroit Lions team that went 15-2 last year.
Green Bay built up a 27-6 lead before allowing a garbage-time touchdown in the final minute. Either way, it was a comfortable win as a -1.5 favourite over the NFC's reigning No. 1 seed.
The Packers held the Lions to a feeble 3.8 yards per play — 29th in the NFL — in Micah Parsons' debut.
Parsons only played 30 of a possible 67 snaps and should continue to ramp up following a soap-operatic offseason (he averaged 81.6% of snaps for the Cowboys last year).
In fairness, the Commanders handled business in Week 1 as well, but that was against the lowly New York Giants. A primetime date at Lambeau will be a much tougher task.
- Since the start of last season, the Packers rank fifth in defensive EPA per play, according to rbsdm.com.
- In the same span, Green Bay ranks eighth in offensive EPA per rush, and Washington is 29th in defensive EPA per rush.
Back Deebo after Washington debut
Samuel over 4.5 receptions (+114): Not to be over-reactionary off one game, but Samuel was highly involved in his Commanders' debut, and I'd like to buy in.
The ex-49er had a team-high 10 targets, turning that into seven catches for 77 yards. He added one rush for 19 yards, too.
Green Bay did a great job preventing explosive plays in Week 1, and if that holds true on Thursday, Samuel should be the beneficiary of some underneath looks.
According to Fantasy Pros, Samuel averaged 5.4 yards before catch per reception. He should be a viable safety valve for Jayden Daniels if Parsons and Co. are close to getting home.
Commanders vs. Packers picks made at 11:43 a.m. ET 09/09/2025.
