Teoscar Hernandez headlines Wednesday's MLB home run bets.
Today's MLB HR narrative: Hernandez hit his 22nd and 23rd home runs of the season last night, and is in a good spot to add to that total against a lefty at Dodger Stadium. Elsewhere, Yordan Alvarez is a strong pick to hammer a struggling Jose Berrios.
Check out the best MLB home run picks and analysis for Sept. 10.
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MLB home run picks
Best Bet: Hernandez to hit a home run (+350)
Hernandez is a streaky hitter, and I'm hoping yesterday's two-homer outing lights a fire.
The power bat has logged at least 25 home runs in each of the last four seasons, and is closing in on that mark again.
He's done most of his damage against lefties and will face a bad one tonight in Kyle Freeland.
- Hernandez vs. LHP: .278/.314/.536 splits, 16.2 AB/HR ratio
- Hernandez vs. RHP: .234/.272/.429 splits, 20.8 AB/HR ratio
Freeland sports a 5.10 ERA and has the misfortune of playing half of his games at Coors Field. But he's still gotten hit hard on the road (4.56 ERA, .274 OBA) and by righties (.303/.349/.493 slash line).
The southpaw ranks in the 15th percentile or lower in xBA, xSLG, hard-hit rate, K rate and average exit velocity, per Baseball Savant.
Freeland's one plus is that he doesn't walk batters (88th percentile BB rate), but that's a boon for this wager.
Key stat: Hernandez is 1-for-5 against Freeland with a home run. He has a .381 xBA and 1.364 xSLG in those at-bats.
Best HR predictions
Alvarez to hit a home run (+350): Berrios is clinging on for dear life down the stretch.
From July 1 onwards, the Toronto Blue Jays righty has a 5.47 ERA and a 1.8 HR/9 rate. For context, Zach Littell ranks last among qualified pitchers with a 1.9 HR/9 rate this season.
Berrios also ranks in the bottom-third percentile in xERA, xBA, barrel rate, K rate, whiff rate and average exit velocity. Yikes.
Alvarez has seen Berrios plenty and is 3-for-16 against him with a pair of bombs. And the Houston slugger's .289 xBA and .656 xSLG in those at-bats indicate he's been a tad unlucky.
Both the pitcher and hitter in this matchup run reverse splits, meaning this isn't optimized for your typical lefty-on-righty platoon advantage.
But I still like Alvarez, who is batting a blistering .516 this month, to come through.
MLB home run picks made at 10:17 a.m. ET on 09/10/2025.
