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One pitcher and one hitter contribute to my MLB prop bets on Sunday.
Today's MLB props narrative: Paul Skenes hasn't been racking up his usual strikeout numbers, but a matchup against the Seattle Mariners will provide the Pittsburgh Pirates ace with an opportunity for a strong outing.
Check out my top MLB prop bets for July 6, featuring picks on Skenes and Willy Adames.
MLB prop bets
Best bet: Adames under 0.5 runs (-110)
The Giants' shortstop has been on a tear over the past six games:
- 10-for-25 (.435 batting average)
- .652 SLG
- 15 total bases
He has at least a hit in all six games. But this is all for show as Adames faces lefty Jacob Lopez, and his stats against left-handed pitching have been awful.
- Vs. RHP: .255 BA (.412 SLG)
- Vs. LHP: .140 BA (.221 SLG)
His slugging percentage against lefties is worse than his average against righties. That's how drastically different the splits are.
Despite his recent success, this would be a matchup to fade him in. Plus, bettors are getting a good price because of his hot bat.
Lopez has a solid 3.88 ERA in 46.1 innings pitched this season.
Key stat: Adames has scored just 10 runs against lefties in 97 plate appearances.
Best MLB picks
Skenes over 7.5 Ks (+114): Skenes hasn't had his best stuff lately, but a matchup with the Mariners is good news for the flamethrower arm.
- They strike out the sixth most in the majors (8.75 Ks per game).
- Skenes has failed to reach this total in two straight but played teams (Cardinals, Brewers) which rank in the bottom 12 for K-rate.
- Seattle's offence has a 32.0% K-rate against Skenes in 25 career plate appearances.
The Pirates' star pitcher has a 9.32 K/9, so an extended outing against a struggling lineup could be all he needs to have a lights-out performance.
MLB prop picks made at 9:55 a.m. ET on 07/06/2025.
