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The St. Louis Cardinals and Chicago Cubs play out the rubber match of their Fourth of July weekend series on Sunday Night Baseball.
The pregame narrative: Chicago dominated St. Louis in the series opener, but the latter returned the favour on Saturday. Erick Fedde takes the bump for the Cards while Matthew Boyd starts for the Cubs, giving Chicago a notable pitching advantage.
Check out my Cardinals vs. Cubs prop bets, featuring Dansby Swanson and Pete Crow-Armstrong.
Cardinals vs. Cubs prop bets
Best Bet: Swanson over 1.5 total bases (+145)
Several factors are pointing to a big performance from Swanson on Sunday.
The first is his recent production. Swanson is absolutely mashing baseballs ahead of this contest.
Here are Swanson's numbers across his last 10 games:
- .366 batting average
- .537 SLG
- .946 OPS
- 4 extra-base hits
He's crushing it hitting out of the five hole, and is staring down a juicy matchup against Fedde.
Swanson has done very well in a fairly large sample size of at-bats versus Fedde, going 10-for-26 against the Cardinals' righty.
The two recently squared off on June 25, and Swanson swatted a double off Fedde in the contest.
Fedde is struggling ahead of this contest, too. He's allowed 18 hits and 14 runs across his last two starts.
Expect another strong performance from Swanson to close out this series.
Key stat: Swanson has topped this line in six of his last 10 games, totalling 22 bases during that stretch.
Best MLB picks
Fedde under 3.5 strikeouts (+110): Fading Fedde on this market makes a lot of sense.
The Cardinals' starter doesn't generate a whole lot of swing-and-miss. Fedde combines a fifth-percentile whiff rate with a second-percentile walk rate, according to Baseball Savant.
Naturally, his strikeout numbers tend to run quite low. Fedde's averaging 3.4 strikeouts per game this season and has fallen under this mark in nine of his starts.
His chances of an above-average day look even dimmer when looking at Chicago's extremely low strikeout rate. The Cubs generate the seventh-fewest strikeouts per game (7.80).
Fedde only totalled two punchouts in his lone appearance against Chicago this year.
Crow-Armstrong over 0.5 stolen bases (+280): Crow-Armstrong hasn't swiped a bag in this series yet, but Sunday seems like the right opportunity.
Part of the reason why he hasn't stolen a base yet is that he hasn't spent much time on base. Crow-Armstrong has four hits this weekend, but two went for homers.
If he's able to reach base against Fedde, there's a good chance he'll have the green light to run. Fedde has allowed 30 stolen bases over the last two seasons, which is the second most of all starting pitchers today.
In fact, the Cubs swiped three bags off Fedde on June 25.
Crow-Armstrong is one of the most dangerous baserunners in baseball, ranking third in stolen bases this season with 26.
Cardinals vs. Cubs prop bets made at 11:18 a.m. ET on 07/06/2025.
