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The Texas Rangers and San Diego Padres put an end to an exciting series on Sunday Night Baseball.
The pregame narrative: San Diego topped Texas in the series opener, but the Rangers struck back with a 7-4 win on Saturday. A struggling pitcher gets the ball for the Rangers in this contest, and that has me backing one of the Padres' top hitters.
Check out my Rangers vs. Padres prop bets, featuring Jack Leiter and Luis Arraez.
Rangers vs. Padres prop bets
Best Bet: Leiter under 15.5 outs (-108)
Leiter isn't a pitcher worth backing on Sunday's slate of games.
The Rangers' righty has several factors working against him in this matchup. Firstly, he is pitching poorly ahead of this game.
Here are his numbers from his last four starts:
- 6.41 ERA
- 5.33 FIP
- 25 hits allowed
He is giving up a fair amount of contact, including nine extra-base knocks during this run.
His home-road splits also suggest that being a visitor on Sunday makes him an even bigger fade candidate.
Check out how he has managed in seven games at home and away this year:
- He has a 4.55 away ERA vs. a 4.08 home ERA.
- Leiter has issued 20 walks as a visitor compared to 12 at home.
- He owns a 1.421 road WHIP and a 1.210 home WHIP.
Those numbers are relevant entering tonight's contest, as Petco Park holds the same park factor rating as Globe Life Field (98), according to StatCast.
Additionally, Leiter's stuff doesn't earn him many strikeouts, and command can be an issue:
- 29th percentile strikeout rate.
- 18th percentile walk rate.
I expect him to rack up a high pitch count early in this game. San Diego generates the fewest strikeouts per game (6.15) and the third-most walks per contest (3.80) at home this season.
Key stat: Leiter has gone under this total in three of his last five starts.
Best MLB picks
Arraez over 0.5 RBI (+170): I can certainly get behind backing Arraez at this price.
Few bats ever have been as consistent as his. Arraez's .319 career batting average illustrates just how strong this guy is at making contact.
He was struggling earlier in the season, but his recent run suggests he's rounding back into form. Over the last two weeks, Arraez is batting an eye-popping .347.
His spot in the lineup is why I'm targeting his RBI prop. Arraez bats fourth against right-handed pitchers, putting him behind key hitters like Fernando Tatis (.349 OBP), Jackson Merrill (.342) and Manny Machado (.355).
If those three can generate some offence at the top of the lineup, that puts Arraez in a fantastic position to clean up.
Arraez has two RBI in his last four games.
Rangers vs. Padres prop bets made at 12:43 p.m. ET on 07/06/2025.
