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Two star sluggers headline Sunday's MLB home run picks.
Today's MLB HR narrative: Rafael Devers has put together a decent hit streak and he has a good matchup against the Athletics tonight. Earlier on, Shohei Ohtani looks to add another home run against the Houston Astros.
Check out the best MLB home run picks for July 6.
MLB home run picks
Best bet: Devers to hit a home run (+285)
According to Swish Analytics, the wind will be blowing out at over 8.0 mph to centre field at the Athletics' makeshift home of Sutter Health Park.
The temperature is also supposed to be around 90 degrees at first pitch, meaning the ball should fly tonight. That's reflected in the hefty 10.5 run total.
That brings me to the Giants' newest slugger. Devers is on a five-game hit streak with three doubles in that span. He doesn't have any blasts, but he's seeing the ball well right now and hitting with power.
Overall, take a look at some of his advanced power analytics and where they rank:
- 55.8 hard-hit rate (97th percentile)
- 94.0 mph avg exit velocity (97th percentile)
- 15.4% barrel rate (92nd percentile)
Devers will face left-handed pitcher Jacob Lopez, but he's a rare lefty who hits better against the same side, so it is one more thing working to his advantage on Sunday.
Key stat: Devers bats .289 and has a .488 SLG against LHP.
Best HR predictions
Ohtani to hit a home run (+175): Dodger Stadium is right around average in terms of home runs allowed to left-handed hitters.
But on Sunday, the wind will pick up and blow out to right field at around 7.5 mph. That will turn an average ballpark into a very friendly hitter's park for Ohtani.
And he gets an A-plus matchup against Astros starter Ryan Gusto.
The big righty has struggled at times and owns a 4.90 ERA through 18 appearances (11 starts).
His 90.4% average exit velocity and 15th percentile chase rate (24.5%) won't be doing him any favours either against a free-swinging power hitter like Ohtani.
Ohtani ranks third in the MLB with 30 home runs this season and owns a 1.002 OPS.
MLB home run picks made at 10:55 a.m. ET on 07/06/2025.
