BET FINDER: Search & Bet!
The round of 16 begins on Sunday at the All England Club.
The pregame narrative: Carlos Alcaraz faces Andrey Rublev with a chance to extend his winning streak to 21 matches. Before that, Nicolas Jarry and Cameron Norrie are both red-hot heading into their match, with the winner advancing to the quarterfinal at Wimbledon.
Check out my top Wimbledon predictions for July 6.
Wimbledon predictions: July 6
Best Bet: Rublev/Alcaraz over 34.5 games
Alcaraz is on an incredible run, there's no doubt about it, but this is too many games for their matchup.
You would think the Spaniard is playing a nobody with his -1,115 price tag to win, but Rublev is a top-15 player in the world and should be a tough out.
Alcaraz has owned his competitor on hard courts, winning both meetings in straight sets, but it's Rublev who has the upper hand on clay (1-0), a surface that plays more similarly to grass.
They've never played on grass, but Rublev is 29-16 in his career on the surface (17-8 since 2021).
He's been in form at Wimbledon, too, winning nine of the 11 sets he's played in.
On the other side, Alcaraz has been winning, but not in the fashion he's used to. He's gone over this total in two of his three games at the event.
Key stat: Alcaraz has lost a set in seven of his last 10 Grand Slam matches dating back to the French Open.
Wimbledon best bet: Jarry vs. Norrie
Jarry/Norrie over 41.5 games (-109): These two competitors have outperformed their rankings at Wimbledon.
- Jarry (No. 143) has been rolling through his competition. He won all three qualifiers in straight sets before winning as an underdog against Holger Rune (No. 8) and Joao Fonseca (No. 54).
- He now has a 9-3 record on grass this season.
- Norrie (No. 61) didn't need to qualify and has won nine of 11 sets at Wimbledon against opponents like Frances Tiafoe (No. 12) and Roberto Bautista Agut (No. 42).
Because of the extra four hours needed for Jarry to reach the round of 16, I do lean on the side of Norrie, but I truly can't fade either player right now and will take the over instead in what I expect to be a close match.
The total of 41.5 games is on the higher side, but it reflects the pick'em ML odds.
Plus, it would still only need four close sets for this wager to cash.
Best Bet: Fritz vs. Thompson
Thompson +1.5 sets (+180): Lastly, I'll give out a nice plus-money pick on a strong grass player.
Fritz is just that himself, owning an 11-1 record this season, but he's starting to face resistance, which tells me he's starting to fatigue.
The American has been impressive since the start of June. He won 11 of 12 matches in that span.
However, after winning the first four of those contests in straight sets, Fritz has needed extra sets in five of six victories since.
That includes two five-set contests at Wimbledon with Gabriel Diallo and Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard.
Additionally, Thompson is 1-0 on grass vs. Fritz in his career. He won that match in straight sets back in June 2024.
The Australian is 71-49 on the surface and needs to win two sets against Fritz for this wager to cash. But also be on upset watch in this one.
Wimbledon predictions made at 12:35 p.m. on 07/05/2025.
