A crucial series between the Toronto Blue Jays and Houston Astros is up for grabs on Thursday afternoon.
The pregame narrative: Toronto and Houston split a pair of low-scoring games to begin this series, and now the battle of division leaders goes to a rubber match. Both Kevin Gausman and Cristian Javier have fared well against these respective lineups, which means runs could be at a premium again.
Check out my Astros vs. Blue Jays for Sept. 11, featuring prop bets on Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Jeremy Pena.
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Astros vs. Blue Jays predictions
Parlay: Guerrero under 1.5 baess | Pena under 1.5 bases | Gausman over 4.5 Ks (+300)
Guerrero under 1.5 total bases (-129): Before yesterday's 0-for-4 showing, Guerrero had compiled six consecutive multi-hit games. So if you're questioning this pick, I get it.
But all MLB hitters have peaks and valleys — even elite ones like Guerrero. Prior to his mini-tear, Vladdy had gone 3-for-30 over a nine-game stretch.
All told, he's gone under his bases prop in nine of his past 15 starts. And I expect more of the same with Javier on the bump.
- Guerrero is 0-for-6 with two walks and two strikeouts vs. Javier.
- Javier walks a lot of batters, and walks don't contribute to total bases counts. The right-hander has a 3.57 BB/9 since 2022, which is the 18th-highest among 150 pitchers in that span.
Guerrero has an 89th-percentile walk rate (12.5%), per Baseball Savant, and it's more likely that the Astros will want to pitch around him with Bo Bichette out of the lineup.
MLB SGP legs
Pena under 1.5 total bases (-190): Pena has underwhelmed at the plate recently, and combining that with his brutal numbers vs. Gausman, I think this is a worthwhile fade to add to the SGP.
- Since Aug. 16, Pena has a .232/.303/.364 slash line, with more strikeouts (24) than hits (23). He's gone under 1.5 bases in 14 of 23 starts in that span.
- Pena is 1-for-11 with six Ks against Gausman.
The shortstop has solid contact quality, evidenced by his 82nd-percentile xBA (.280), but there's a lot of swing-and-miss in his game. Gausman has clearly taken advantage of that.
Pena has a ninth-percentile chase rate and a 28th-percentile whiff rate.
Gausman over 4.5 strikeouts (-205): Pena is far from the only Houston hitter that Gausman has carved up.
The Astros' lineup is collectively 18-for-107 (.168) with 50 strikeouts against Toronto's veteran right-hander.
Gausman has garnered a 42% K rate and a 37.4% whiff rate against this lineup. Those are both miles ahead of the league-average rates (22.0 K%, 25.1 whiff%).
Gausman struck out six when he faced the Astros in April. He's also 7-2 vs. this prop in his past nine outings, averaging 6.4 Ks in that span.
Blue Jays picks as of 8:36 a.m. on 09/11/2025.
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