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Cal Raleigh is closing the gap on Aaron Judge for the AL MVP award.
The latest: Judge is still a -1,430 favourite to win a third MVP award, mind you, but Raleigh is the only other player within 60-to-1. The Seattle Mariners' catcher leads MLB in home runs and RBI entering play on June 29.
Let's take a look at the current AL MVP odds.
AL MVP odds
Check out the latest odds to win AL MVP. Click linked odds to add selection to your betslip.
Best AL MVP odds
The favourite: Aaron Judge (-1,430)
These were Judge's numbers entering play heading into June:
- 1st in batting average (.398)
- 1st in OPS (1.268)
- 2nd in RBI (50)
- 2nd in HR (21)
If that seemed unsustainable at the time, it's because it was.
Judge is still hitting for power, with seven home runs and an OPS north of .525 this month — but the batting average has tailed off.
It was always reasonable to assume Judge won't continue hitting at that average, considering his previous career-high is .322 from last year.
But even a sizeable amount of regression, which we're currently seeing, comfortably puts the Yankee star in contention to win the AL Triple Crown.
Judge's current .354 BA paces MLB, and the next-closest player in batting average is Jacob Wilson (.340).
And none of this has been luck-driven; Judge ranks in the 98th percentile or better in xwOBA, xBA, xSLG, average exit velocity and barrel rate, per Baseball Savant.
AL MVP notes
- Raleigh (+450) seems like the only man who can topple Judge. The catcher's 32 home runs and 69 RBI pace the league. He's hit 15 home runs in his last 30 games and is also an 89th percentile framer behind the plate. Raleigh would be just the third catcher to win MVP this century, and the second since Buster Posey in 2012 with the San Francisco Giants.
- Guererro Jr. (+15,000) isn't doing anything special so far, posting a .280/.386/.443 slash line, but Toronto's first baseman tends to heat up as the season goes on. The Blue Jays committed to Vladdy with a 14-year, $500-million deal in early April and will look to get more production from him as the they hunt for a wild-card spot.
