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The Tarik Skubal show makes its way to Sunday Night Baseball when the Detroit Tigers host the Minnesota Twins.
The pregame narrative: Skubal (9-2, 2.29 ERA) is the odds-on favourite to defend his AL Cy Young title after a stellar start to the year. At the time of writing, his Tigers are -275 to win this game and series against the Twins.
Check out my Twins vs. Tigers prop bets, featuring Skubal and Gleyber Torres.
Twins vs. Tigers prop bets
Best Bet: Skubal over 7.5 strikeouts (-132)
All signs point to a Skubal masterclass tonight.
The fireballing lefty is the best pitcher in the AL — full stop. He has an exceptionally high strikeout floor, and faces a team which has gotten torn apart by southpaws this year.
- Skubal's 125 strikeouts are the fourth most in MLB.
- His 32.1% K rate and 32.5% whiff rate rank in the 93rd and 91st percentiles, respectively, according to Baseball Savant.
- The lefty has 6+ strikeouts in 11 straight starts, going 7-4 against this line.
Minnesota has the seventh-highest K rate against LHP this season (24.8%) and now faces the most dangerous lefty in the game.
Skubal has faced the Twins a handful of times in his career, and the results have been killer. He owns a 39.4% K rate against Minnesota in 69 plate appearances.
I expect one of the game's brightest stars to shine under the bright lights.
Key stat: Skubal is averaging 8.55 strikeouts per game at home this year (5-4 vs. this line).
Best MLB picks
Torres over 0.5 runs (+104): I'm loving the value on Torres to score tonight, given his spot in the lineup and the pitcher on the mound for Minnesota.
Chris Paddack (4.64 ERA) is having a dreadful run. He's given up 23 hits and 16 earned runs over his last three starts, ballooning his ERA up over one full point.
The righty doesn't miss a ton of bats (16.7% K rate, 12th percentile) and now has to face a Tigers lineup averaging the fourth-most runs per game.
Torres bats second for Detroit and is having the best year of his career outside of his sophomore season with the New York Yankees back in 2019.
The second baseman is batting .301 with a .391 OBP this month and has scored six runs in his last five games.
Oh, and he's also 4-for-8 against Paddack.
Twins vs. Tigers prop bets made at 12:33 p.m. ET on 06/29/2025.
