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Chase Burns makes his second MLB start on Monday, and I'm buying in on his prop market at plus money.
Today's MLB props narrative: Burns racked up a bunch of strikeouts in his debut, and he draws a stellar matchup to do that again tonight. Elsewhere, Bobby Witt Jr. looks to stay hot while Patrick Corbin should be tasked with eating a decent sum of innings.
Check out the best MLB prop bets for June 30.
MLB prop bets
Best bet: Witt over 1.5 total bases (-106)
Witt is on a hot streak right now, and I'm digging his matchup tonight against Seattle's George Kirby.
- Over his past 13 games, the shortstop has a .333/.357/.630 slash line. In that span, 10 of his 18 hits have gone for extra bases.
- Witt has just three walks in his past 22 games, which tells you he's going up there to hit. On the season, his 7.1% walk rate ranks in MLB's 35th percentile, per Baseball Savant.
Kirby is the right kind of pitcher for a free swinger to face.
The right-hander has a low walk rate (5.8%, 84th percentile), and he allows plenty of hard contact. He ranks in the 35th percentile or worse in xERA, xBA, whiff rate, hard-hit rate and average exit velocity.
Witt is 4-for-9 with two doubles vs. Kirby. And as MLB's doubles leader (29), I know he's quite capable of cashing this bet on one swing.
Key stat: Witt is 10-3 vs. this prop in his past 13 games, averaging 2.6 bases per game over that time.
Best MLB picks
Corbin over 16.5 outs (-110): Corbin needs to get into meat shield mode to give his severely depleted bullpen a breather.
The Texas Rangers went to extras in all three games of their weekend series, playing 34 total innings from Friday through Sunday.
As a result, six of their eight relievers have worked two of the past three days. And another one is likely unavailable after throwing 39 pitches on Sunday.
Just because it'd be nice to get length out of Corbin doesn't mean it'll happen. But I expect his leash to be longer than usual under these circumstances.
Corbin is 4-6 vs. this prop since the start of May, but he's averaging a hearty 17.2 outs/game in that time. He has pitched into the sixth inning or deeper in nine of his past 10 starts.
Burns over 6.5 Ks (+123): Burns, the No. 2 overall pick in last year's draft, had an eventful MLB debut last week that flashed plenty of promise.
In 5.0 innings, Burns allowed three runs on six hits while striking out eight. The righty's fastball ticked up to 100.1 mph, and he garnered six whiffs on his slider (40.0% whiff rate).
It's debatable who has the upper hand when a lineup is facing a pitcher for the first time, but I think the edge goes to the pitcher. The matchup itself is advantageous, too.
Boston has the third-highest strikeout rate in MLB (24.1%). Over the past two weeks, the Red Sox's K rate is up to 26.3%.
MLB prop picks made at 9:41 a.m. ET on 06/30/2025.
