The New York Yankees look for a third straight series win when they take on the Houston Astros at Daikin Park on Wednesday.
The pregame narrative: New York won yesterday's series opener and is now 8-1 in its last nine games while averaging 7.4 runs. The Yankees sit 2.5 games behind the Toronto Blue Jays in the AL East and are favoured to win again tonight.
See why I like plenty of offence in my Yankees vs. Astros SGP predictions for Sept. 3, featuring Aaron Judge and Jeremy Pena.
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Yankees vs. Astros predictions
Parlay: Yankees over 4.5 runs | Judge over 1.5 bases | Pena over 0.5 hits (+260)
Yankees over 4.5 runs (-115): New York leads MLB with 5.26 runs per game this season, which is a good place to start. And even better, the Yankees' offence has gone nuclear in the past 20 games:
- 6.5 runs per game (2nd)
- .541 SLG (2nd)
- 144 wRC+ (2nd)
- 280 ISO (1st)
The squad has cleared this total in eight of its last nine games and has a chance to stay hot against a suspect right-hander, Jason Alexander.
Alexander was acquired by the Astros ahead of the all-star break and put together a solid August on paper (2.17 ERA across five starts). But his underlying metrics are concerning.
In those outings, Alexander's xBA (.272) far exceeded his actual BA (.204). He also allowed a 49% hard-hit rate. For context, Vladimir Guerrero Jr.'s 50.9% hard-hit rate ranks in the 88th percentile.
On the season, Alexander ranks in the 30th percentile or lower in xERA, xBA, K rate, and hard-hit rate.
MLB SGP legs
Judge over 1.5 bases (-134): Judge took Alexander deep when these teams met in August, and I fully expect him to do more damage tonight.
That's not exactly a hot take, considering he leads MLB in batting average (.325) with 43 home runs and an 1.113 OPS.
Judge went 2-for-5 yesterday and has now cleared this line in three straight games.
On the season, he ranks first in total bases per game (2.44). As long as the Astros don't issue several intentional walks, which they didn't yesterday, Judge should have plenty of opportunities.
Pena over 0.5 hits (-275): Finally, I'll turn to Pena to record a hit.
The Stros' shortstop is batting .304 and has done his best work at home and against right-handers, which is the situation he'll be in tonight.
- At home: 341/.402/.514 slash line
- vs. RHPs: .307/.364/.477 slash line
New York is starting Will Warren (4.30 ERA), who's been hit hard since July and owns a 40th-percentile xBA (.255).
Warren has some serious command issues, but Pena is a free swinger, with a 12th-percentile chase rate and 28th-percentile walk rate.
That should make this leg a cinch.
Yankees vs. Astros predictions made at 10 a.m. ET on 09/03/2025.
