The Toronto Blue Jays face the Cincinnati Reds in a rubber match on Wednesday night, with Shane Bieber taking the mound for the visitors.
The pregame narrative: Bieber has posted a pair of solid outings as a Blue Jay and should be relied upon for a hearty workload tonight. Cincinnati counters with Zack Littell, a low-strikeout arm who gives up plenty of loud contact.
Check out my Blue Jays best bets vs. the Reds for Sept. 3, featuring both starting pitchers and Bo Bichette.
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Blue Jays best bets vs. Reds
Best bet: Littell under 3.5 Ks (-115)
There are two viable pathways for the Jays to keep Littell under this strikeout line:
- Chase him early. Toronto has a .290/.354/.489 slash line in the second half, and all three of those numbers lead the majors in that span. For context, Corey Seager is 30th in the majors this year with a .487 SLG.
- Stay selective. The Jays have the league's lowest strikeout rate (17.6%) and whiff rate (21.2%), per Baseball Savant, as well as the highest out-of-zone contact rate (63.6%).
Littell only struck out two Jays over 7.1 innings when he faced the club back in May.
The righty only garnered six whiffs on 42 swings in that game, equating to a paltry 14.3% whiff rate (MLB average is 25.0%).
Littell's pitch arsenal consists primarily of sliders, splitters and four-seamers. Facing that combo of pitches from right-handers, Toronto has the second-lowest whiff rate in the majors (22.4%).
As a former Tampa Bay Ray, Littell has made his fair share of appearances against Jays hitters. He hasn't fooled them much in the past, and I don't expect that to change.
Key stat: Toronto's active lineup is 26-for-82 (.317) vs. Littell with eight extra-base hits and just nine strikeouts.
Jays prop picks
Bichette over 1.5 total bases (-106): At a near-even-money price point, I can't stay away from this market right now.
Bichette is absolutely on fire, and I love the matchup against Littell.
- Bichette is 17-12 vs. this prop since Aug. 1, posting a .385/.442/.598 slash line in that span.
- Two games into this series, the shortstop is 5-for-8 with four extra-base hits (13 total bases).
- Littell rarely walks players (4.1% walk rate, 98th percentile). He also has a 20th-percentile xBA (.270) and average exit velocity (90.4 mph).
Oh, and Bichette is 5-for-11 with a double against Littell already. The history and the hot streak are both working in Bichette's favour.
Bieber over 17.5 outs (-118): Jose Berrios let me down on his outs market yesterday, but that only makes me more bullish about Bieber's opportunity to work deep.
Berrios was chased after just 2.0 innings, giving way to a parade of five relievers. Toronto does have an off-day tomorrow, mercifully, but the bullpen could still use a breather right now.
- The two highest-leverage arms, Jeff Hoffman and Seranthony Dominguez, have pitched three times apiece in the past four days.
- Three other relievers have pitched twice in the past three days, while rotation castoff Eric Lauer (50 pitches on Tuesday) will almost certainly be unavailable as well.
Bieber is 1-1 vs. this line since debuting with the Blue Jays on Aug. 22. He's allowed three runs on seven hits over 11.1 innings and at least worked into the sixth both times.
The right-hander has yet to walk anyone, which should help keep his pitch count low. And he's facing a Reds team that has a 91 wRC+ since the all-star break (24th in MLB).
Blue Jays vs. Reds run line prediction
Blue Jays -1.5 (+105): Simply put, I think Bieber gives the Blue Jays a chance to really separate against Littell and the Reds tonight.
Bieber has more strikeouts (15) than hits/walks/runs allowed (10), and he looks totally comfortable on an MLB mound despite missing a year and a half.
Toronto has a 79-60 (56.8%) run line record, which is third in MLB, while Cincinnati's run line is a far more pedestrian 71-68 (51.1%).
The Reds are 3-7 in their past 10 games, and all seven losses came by multiple runs.
Blue Jays best bets made at 9:30 a.m. ET on 09/03/2025.
