The 2025 NFL season begins on Thursday Night Football when the Philadelphia Eagles raise their championship banner against the Dallas Cowboys.
The pregame narrative: Philadelphia was the clear-cut best team in the NFC East last year, and the team trounced Dallas by a combined 62 points in their matchups. Can the Cowboys kick off the year with a massive upset? The Eagles are favoured by 7.5 points as of Monday morning.
Check out my Cowboys vs. Eagles picks for the season opener on Sept. 4, featuring a prop bet on DeVonta Smith.
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Cowboys vs. Eagles picks
Best bet: Over 47 points (-114)
I believe this will be closer than most people think.
Last year, Dallas scored a combined 13 points in two games against Philadelphia. Is that horrible? Yes. But Cooper Rush started both games, effectively tying one hand behind the back of then-offensive-coordinator (and now head coach) Brian Schottenheimer.
With Dak Prescott fully healthy and George Pickens lining up opposite Cee Dee Lamb, I expect Dallas to put up some points.
Philadelphia ranked in the top three in scoring defence, total defence, and defensive EPA per play (per RBSDM.com), so things won't come easy.
However, the Prescott-led Cowboys have averaged 30.0 PPG against the Eagles since the start of the 2022 season. In those three games, the over on this total is 2-1 with one 46-point game.
And we all know what Philadelphia's offence can do.
Jalen Hurts, A.J. Brown, Saquon Barkley and Smith are no joke, and they line up behind arguably the best offensive line in football.
Dallas' defence was sieve-like last season, and it's now missing All-Pro pass rusher Micah Parsons for good. I see this being a blow-for-blow shootout to ring in the season.
Key stat: Dallas had the fifth-best overs rate (11-6) last season.
Thursday Night Football prop pick
Smith over 56.5 receiving yards (-113): Smith has always been the No. 2 option in Philadelphia, but this line seems a tad disrespectful.
- The speedy wideout averaged 64.7 receiving yards in the regular season last year and went off for 120 yards the last time he played the Cowboys.
- In his last five games against Dallas, Smith is 3-2 against this line while averaging 74.2 yards.
- The Cowboys allowed the sixth-most receiving yards per game to WRs in 2024, per Pro Football Reference.
At the risk of stating the obvious, losing Parsons is a massive blow to Dallas' pass rush. His absence should give Smith more time to get open, allowing Hurts to find him for large chunk plays.
Moreover, three-time Pro Bowl defensive tackle Kenny Clark, who was part of the trade package for Parsons, is a definite upgrade in Dallas' trenches.
Philly will still be able to run the ball, but it should skew to a more pass-heavy attack, given those significant lineup changes.
Cowboys vs. Eagles picks made at 10:43 a.m. ET 09/01/2025.
