The last two U.S. Open men's semifinal spots are on the line Wednesday in New York City.
The pregame narrative: Canadian Felix Auger-Aliassime has a chance to advance but will need to beat his third straight top-15 opponent in Alex de Minaur. In the other quarterfinal, Jannik Sinner goes against fellow Italian Lorenzo Musetti.
Check out my top 2025 U.S. Open picks for the quarterfinal.
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US Open picks: Quarterfinal
Best Bet: Auger-Aliassime to win (+140)
While these two have combined to lose just two sets at the U.S. Open, there's been a sizeable difference in the level of competition.
- de Minaur's best opponent was No. 53-ranked Daniel Altmaier. Two of his other three opponents were ranked outside the ATP's top 100.
- Auger-Aliassime comfortably defeated No. 3 Alexander Zverev and, most recently, No. 15 Andrey Rublev in straight sets.
The Canadian's service has been quality. He's won 78% of his first serves, a slightly higher number than de Minaur, despite facing much better opponents.
Auger-Aliassime has also been better at avoiding breaks at this tournament, saving 58.3% of break points compared to the Australian's 48.7% hold rate.
Key stat: Auger-Aliassime has won eight of 12 sets in his career vs. de Minaur and won their lone match on hard court.
US Open best bets
Sinner/Musetti over 31.5 games (-113): Sinner will likely win this match, but this line is too low for me.
Both players have been at their top level, as neither has dropped more than a set in any prior match at the U.S. Open.
This under has cashed in six of their eight combined matches, but it's been Sinner and Musetti doing the damage.
If we assume Sinner is going to win, it's important to look at his opponent's recent losses.
Musetti has won a set in each of his past five losses. That includes a match against Carlos Alcaraz at the French Open that lasted 31 games and was guaranteed to go over this total before the Italian retired with an injury.
And if Musetti were to pull off the upset, I think it's safe to say Sinner would win enough games to secure the over on a modest total that could cash in three close sets.
US Open picks made at 1:32 p.m. on 09/02/2025.
