The Oklahoma Sooners host the Auburn Tigers in one of three ranked-on-ranked matchups this week — and I've got a prediction for it.
The pregame narrative: No. 11 Oklahoma has been superb on defence and will face a familiar foe under centre against No. 22 Auburn. Elsewhere on Saturday, the No. 21 Michigan Wolverines are in a game with rock fight potential against the Nebraska Cornhuskers.
Check out the best college football Week 4 picks, featuring an ATS pick for the South Carolina Gamecocks vs. Missouri Tigers matchup.
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College football picks Week 4
Best bet: Missouri -13.5 (-110)
It's too early to know with certainty what LaNorris Sellers' status will be for Saturday.
But if the South Carolina quarterback is unable to go, I think the Gamecocks are cooked.
- Sellers, who entered the season as a notable Heisman candidate, exited in the second quarter last week following a helmet-to-helmet collision. On3's Pete Nakos later reported that Sellers had suffered a concussion.
- Sellers exited with 1:52 left in the second quarter and South Carolina trailing Vanderbilt, 14-7. In his absence, the Gamecocks failed to score on their final seven drives, with three of those possessions ending on a turnover.
South Carolina's backup is Luke Doty, whose official position on the team website is merely "athlete" ... not quarterback.
Over six years with the Gamecocks, Doty has 260 pass attempts (nine TDs, nine INTs), 91 rush attempts and 16 receptions. A jack of all trades and a master of none.
Sellers led the Gamecocks to a 34-30 win at home over Mizzou last year, throwing for 353 yards and five TDs. It'd be a massive loss not to have him, and even if he plays, there's no telling how lingering concussion symptoms could affect him.
Oh, and let's give No. 23 Missouri some credit for a strong start. The Tigers are 3-0 ATS with a trio of wins by 11+ points.
According to Game On Paper, the Tigers are seventh in NCAA Division I in net EPA per play. The Gamecocks rank 98th in that category.
Key stat: Missouri is 6-0 ATS vs. South Carolina over the previous six seasons.
Fade offence in marquee matchup
Auburn/Oklahoma under 48.5 points (-117): Oklahoma's defence was on full display two weeks ago in a win over Michigan (a team whose game total I'm also betting the under on).
The Sooners have allowed just one touchdown through three games and rank No. 1 in defensive EPA per play. They also have held opponents to an NCAA-low 21.4% success rate on third and fourth down.
Auburn's defence hasn't been as stellar overall, but the Tigers have been stout so far in the run game. Their run defence has the No. 1 success rate in the country.
Unders are 3-0 for Oklahoma this year and 2-1 for Auburn.
And here's the cherry on top: Auburn quarterback Jackson Arnold is a former five-star recruit who spent his first two seasons playing for Brent Venables at Oklahoma.
Venables is a defensive mastermind who knows Arnold's tendencies as well as anyone.
More college football best bets
Michigan/Nebraska under 46.5 points (-113): Michigan and Nebraska have both played one real opponent and a pair of cupcakes. In their matchups against solid opponents, defence ruled the day.
- Aug. 28: Nebraska beat Cincinnati, 20-17
- Sept. 6: Michigan lost to Oklahoma, 24-13
Unders are 10-6 in Cornhuskers games since the start of last season.
As for Michigan, unders are 5-1 when the team is on the road or at a neutral site since the start of 2024. The average total in those games was just 33.2 points.
Michigan true freshman quarterback Bryce Underwood is far from a finished product. I could see him struggling on the road against a Nebraska defence that ranks 12th in EPA per play.
NC State +3.5 (-115): The Duke Blue Devils have struggled to stop the run this year, and now they'll face the Atlantic Coast Conference's finest in Hollywood Smothers.
Smothers is sixth in the nation and first in the ACC in rushing yards through three games (380). He and NC State quarterback CJ Bailey have combined for six rushing TDs and 5.5 yards/carry.
Duke is one of eight D-I schools to allow at least nine rushing TDs so far. The Blue Devils rank 121st in defensive EPA per play.
The Wolfpack's defence is nothing to write home about either, but I like that the team clawed back from an early 14-point deficit last week to beat Wake Forest, on the road, 34-24.
NC State is 3-0 SU and 2-1 ATS. Duke is 0-3 ATS, losing its past two games by a combined 33 points despite facing very modest spreads in those games (+1 at Tulane, +2.5 vs. Illinois).
College football picks made at 2 p.m. on 09/16/2025.
