Two wide receivers and one running back make up this week's NFL prop picks.
The pregame narrative: Marvin Harrison Jr. underwhelmed last year, but gets a fantastic matchup to set the tone in his sophomore campaign. Elsewhere, David Montgomery's modest rushing total against the Green Bay Packers has caught my attention.
Check out my top Week 1 NFL prop bets, featuring a prediction on Cleveland Browns wideout Cedric Tillman.
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NFL prop bets: Week 1
Best bet: Tillman over 38.5 receiving yards (-113)
This is far from flashy, but Tillman has an opportunity to make a name for himself this season.
Slotting in as Cleveland's WR2, he'll be getting plenty of looks from 40-year-old gunslinger Joe Flacco.
Flacco averaged an incredible 251.6 passing yards across seven starts with the Indianapolis Colts last year, while throwing the ball 35 times a game.
Cleveland will likely be down big against the Cincinnati Bengals' electric offence, and that should force first-year offensive coordinator Tommy Rees into a pass-heavy game plan right off the bat.
Enter Tillman, who was finding solid form in 2024 before suffering a concussion. The then-sophomore averaged 66 receiving yards across his last five games, clearing this line four times.
Cincinnati's biggest problem last year was its defence. The group gave up 7.6 yards per attempt on third downs last year, which ranked 27th, and made no changes except letting one of its best corners, Mike Hilton, walk into free agency.
This has all the makings of a smash play.
Key stat: Tillman caught eight of 12 passes for 81 yards in his lone start against the Bengals last year.
Best NFL picks
Montgomery over 42.5 rushing yards (-114): This should be the year where Jahmyr Gibbs breaks out of his timeshare with Montgomery, but I still expect a heavy dose of the veteran tailback in Sunday's season-opener.
Before his injury in Week 15 against the Buffalo Bills, Montgomery was averaging 59.3 rushing yards at a healthy 4.28 yards per carry.
He was 7-6 against this line, clearing it in both games against the Packers.
The acquisition of Micah Parsons unquestionably makes Green Bay's defence better as a whole, but sending three-time Pro-Bowl defensive tackle Kenny Clark the other way leaves a gap on the defensive line.
Dan Campbell will want to exploit that early, and that means Montgomery and Gibbs will have their fair share of attempts.
Harrison over 55.5 receiving yards (-115): Harrison hauled in 62 catches for 885 yards and eight touchdowns as a rookie last year.
Most players would kill for numbers like that, but it didn't quite live up to the hype a No. 4 overall pick demands. The good news is there is plenty of room to grow.
- Harrison had 116 targets last year, which ranked 29th in the NFL.
- His 1,566 targeted air yards ranked sixth among all receivers, per Player Profiler.
- He was targeted on 46.4% of Arizona's deep balls, which ranked seventh among receivers.
Kyler Murray said there was a "night and day" difference regarding his chemistry with Harrison from when he was drafted until now. That's probably just QB speak, but I'll buy in on the hype train — in this matchup, at least.
Harrison and Co. go up against a New Orleans Saints team which lost two starting corners, four-time Pro Bowler Marshon Lattimore and Paulson Adebo.
NFL prop bets made at 10:30 a.m. ET on 09/04/2025.
