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Denis Shapovalov kicks off his Wimbledon campaign as a heavy favourite against Mariano Navone on Canada Day.
The pre-match narrative: Shapovalov is in poor form right now, sporting a 3-7 record since moving to clay in April. Nonetheless, the Canadian is expected to win his opening match at the All England Club against the No. 91-ranked Navone.
Check out our Navone vs. Shapovalov odds and my best bet for the July 1 tennis match.
Navone vs. Shapovalov odds
Full Wimbledon betting markets
Best men's tennis pick
Best bet: Over 3.5 sets (-110)
Do I think Shapovalov will win his opening match? Sure. But I doubt it happens in straight sets.
The Canadian is 1-2 on grass this year, with his lone win coming via tiebreak over Ugo Humbert at the Terra Wortmann Open on June 17.
Shapovalov is now 9-12 on grass since advancing to the Wimbledon semifinal in 2021.
Navone is a +540 underdog at the time of writing, and that's probably due to his lack of experience on the surface.
The Argentine is just 1-5 lifetime on grass, while playing a whopping 356 matches on clay — most coming on the challenger tour. Still, I expect the 24-year-old to put up a fight.
Navone ranks 12th in return rating (149.2) on the ATP Tour this year, ahead of names like Lorenzo Musetti, Novak Djokovic and Alexander Zverev.
That should be enough to win a break or two, and eventually a set.
Key stat: Navone wins 25.0% of his return games, the 14th-most on tour.
Tennis predictions made at 11:40 a.m. on 06/30/2025.
