BET FINDER: Search & Bet!
Yandy Diaz is playing out of this world right now, and he's my top MLB home run prop pick for Monday night.
Today's MLB HR narrative: Diaz often struggles to hit the ball into the air, but against a fly-ball pitcher tonight, he should be able to do some damage. Elsewhere, Willson Contreras looks to capitalize on a platoon advantage.
Check out the best MLB home run picks for June 30.
MLB home run picks
Best bet: Diaz to hit a home run (+390)
When it comes to generating hard contact, Diaz is in MLB's elite tier.
In every season since 2022, Diaz has ranked in the 89th percentile or better in average exit velocity, hard-hit rate and xBA, per Baseball Savant.
But his power numbers are often less explosive than you'd expect, given that Diaz hits a ton of grounders. His career average launch angle (5.1 degrees) is less than half of MLB's average (12.4 degrees).
With that in mind, it might help Diaz to face a pitcher who serves up a lot of fly balls.
Enter A's starter Jacob Lopez, who has the lowest ground-ball rate in the league (20.2%) among 185 pitchers with 40-plus innings.
Ideally, Lopez's tendencies as a fly-ball pitcher can counteract Diaz's propensity to generate a low launch angle. Add in the power Diaz wields, and we have a nice recipe for a home run.
Plus, Monday's game is being played at homer-friendly George M. Steinbrenner Field.
At the Rays' temporary home, right-hitting players are hitting 31% more HRs than average, per Baseball Savant's park factors data.
Key stat: Diaz has an otherworldly .449/.511/.718 slash line over his past 19 games, with five HRs in that span.
Best HR predictions
Contreras to hit a home run (+400): Contreras reached base and scored in all three weekend series games against the Guardians, continuing a strong run of production this month.
In his past 25 games, the St. Louis catcher is slugging .527 with 14 extra-base hits (five HRs).
Contreras will face left-hander Andrew Heaney, who has coughed up nine homers in his past six starts (including three HRs last time out).
The platoon advantage is part of the draw for this pick, as Contreras has a .500 SLG and a .239 ISO vs. lefties this season. For context, the MLB average for ISO is .143.
MLB home run picks made at 11:38 a.m. ET on 06/30/2025.
