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The Toronto Blue Jays open up a huge four-game set against the New York Yankees at Rogers Centre on Monday.
The pregame narrative: Toronto (45-38) currently sits three games back of New York (48-35) in the AL East. Max Scherzer gets the ball for the Jays, and he's had plenty of success against this Yankees lineup in the past. Still, the visitors are slight favourites with Carlos Rodon pitching.
Check out my Yankees vs. Blue Jays picks for June 30, featuring Aaron Judge, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Ernie Clement.
Yankees vs. Blue Jays picks
Best Bet: Judge over 1.5 total bases (-124)
I don't typically like to pay this kind of juice on a bases prop, but Judge is an exception. The reigning AL MVP is well on the way to defending his title, with a triple crown in sight (MLB ranks in parentheses):
- .356 batting average (1st)
- 30 home runs (2nd)
- 67 RBI (4th)
- 1.180 OPS (1st)
Judge snapped a five-game homerless drought last night with a pair of bombs against the Athletics, and now he gets to face a pitcher still finding his footing.
Scherzer made his return from a lengthy injured list stint on June 25, allowing six hits and three earned runs over 5.0 innings against the Cleveland Guardians.
The 40-year-old was serviceable and said his body "felt great." But he still struggled to miss bats, generating just seven whiffs on 83 pitches (19% whiff rate).
The worry here is that Scherzer will try to pitch around Judge. However, everyone with a brain tries that, and it still hasn't stopped Judge from logging an MLB-high 2.69 total bases per game.
Key stat: Judge has a career .637 slugging percentage at Rogers Centre.
Quick picks
Guerrero over 1.5 bases (+118): Let's balance out the juice on Judge's prop with a pair of plus-money plays — starting with Vladdy.
Toronto's main man is starting to heat up in a big way. He hit a home run in yesterday's series win over the Boston Red Sox and is now slashing .317/.440/.683 over his last 12 games.
Guerrero has demolished left-handed pitching this year (.343/.443/.537 slash line), and is 8-for-12 against Rodon with two doubles and a home run.
New York's southpaw has given up 18 hits and five home runs in his last four starts (22.0 IP).
Clement 1+ RBI (+220): In a perfect world, Guerrero gets on board and Clement sends him home.
- Clement is batting an MLB-best .425 against LHP this year.
- His 231 wRC+ vs. LHP is second in MLB to only Judge.
- 15 of his 21 extra-base hits came against southpaws.
Toronto is averaging 5.07 runs per game at home (seventh-most in MLB) this season. This is a great price for a player hitting behind Bo Bichette, Guerrero, Alejandro Kirk and George Springer.
Blue Jays picks made at 9:37 a.m. ET on 06/30/2025.
