Juventus host Inter Milan in a huge Serie A match at Allianz Stadium on Sunday.
The pregame narrative: Both teams have plenty to play for in this one. Inter is just one point behind Napoli for the table lead while Juventus is two points back of fourth place, which carries automatic Champions League qualifications. Back the hosts to pick up points in a defensive battle.
Check out my Juventus vs. Inter Milan same-game parlay predictions for Feb. 16.
Juventus vs. Inter Milan predictions
Go to full Serie A betting markets
Parlay: Juventus double result | Under 2.5 goals | Barella 1+ shot (+320)
Juventus double result (-159): Thiago Motta's debut season as Juventus manager has turned some heads.
The former Brazilian national has turned I Bianconeri into a stout defensive side but there's a lot to be desired on offence.
- Juventus has conceded 21.4 xG, which is the second-lowest mark in Serie A behind Inter Milan, according to FotMob.
- That's right in line with the squad's 21 goals allowed, which is also second, behind Napoli.
Juve has only lost once in league play all season — in a road fixture to Napoli on Jan. 25 — and owns a 10-13-1 record.
At home, Juventus is 5-7-0 with just 10 goals conceded. Inter is an impressive 8-3-1 away from the San Siro but I can't bet against the hosts with such a large sample size.
Other SGP legs
Under 2.5 goals (-139): Inter might be the only team in Serie A which can dictate play better than Juventus. It ranks first in possession (60.2) with Juve sitting second (58.7).
But Juventus had the majority of possession when these teams met in a 4-4 barnburner at the San Siro on Oct. 27.
Two of Inter's goals came from the penalty spot, though, and I don't expect a repeat of that fixture.
At home, Juventus should have a better shot of slowing things down, especially with key Inter midfielder Federico DiMarco battling the flu.
Juventus and Inter are tied for second in Serie A with 11 clean sheets apiece. The hosts also rank a pedestrian seventh in xG created (33.7) and should be wary of getting into a track meet.
Barella 1+ shot (-155): This is great value for a player like Barella and I would consider playing it as a standalone even with -155 odds.
The dynamic midfielder is integral to Simone Inzaghi's game plan and frequently plays the full 90 minutes in important games.
He's not much of a scoring threat but still attempts plenty of shots, clearing this line in four straight games and seven of his last eight.
He had two shot attempts against Juventus in October.
Serie A picks made at 1:30 p.m. on 2/14/25.
