A series with major playoff seeding implications begins in Toronto on Tuesday night, as the Blue Jays host the Houston Astros at Rogers Centre.
Toronto (82-61) still stands atop the American League, but Houston (78-66) can gain ground in this three-game set. The Astros, who hold the No. 3 seed and are currently on track to miss out on a bye, swept the Jays at home in April.
Check out our Astros vs. Blue Jays preview for the Sept. 9-11 series, highlighting the starting pitching matchups, betting trends and more.
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Astros vs. Blue Jays preview
A lot has changed since these teams last met up on the field.
Back in late April, Toronto went 0-3 in Houston as part of an extended slide. In a five-week span, the Jays went 14-20 and fell to 8.0 games back in the AL East (as of May 27).
Now, Toronto is the frontrunner in its division and in the league as a whole.
Houston has been playing sub-.500 ball since the start of August, but a wild-card bye is still in play — especially if this series goes well for the visiting Astros. Houston only needs to win once in Toronto this week to have the head-to-head tiebreaker, too, which could matter later on.
Hitting hasn't been a problem for the Jays. They're slugging .491 in the second half, which easily paces the majors.
It's the bullpen, which has the fourth-highest ERA since the all-star break (5.38), that has caused problems down the stretch. Fatigue cannot be an excuse at this point, though, given that Toronto was off Thursday and Monday.
Starting pitcher matchups
Sept. 9: RHP Luis Garcia (1-0, 4.50 ERA) vs. RHP Shane Bieber (2-1, 4.15 ERA)
- After a 28-month hiatus as he rehabbed and recovered from Tommy John surgery, Garcia returned to the mound for the Astros last Monday. He struck out six and posted a quality start in a winning effort. Garcia has a healthy 25.6% K rate vs. the Blue Jays' active lineup, with 21 Ks in 82 plate appearances.
- One nightmarish inning ruined Bieber's stat line last time out, but his stuff has been very sharp overall through three starts with Toronto. Through 17.1 innings, Bieber has 21 strikeouts and just two walks, as well as a 56.1% ground-ball rate (league average is 42.3%).
Sept. 10: RHP Jason Alexander (4-1, 4.68 ERA) vs. RHP Jose Berrios (9-5, 4.02 ERA)
- Alexander has allowed six homers in his past four starts. He ranks in the bottom-20th percentile in xERA, xBA, chase rate and hard-hit rate, per Baseball Savant.
- Berrios has solid numbers in a large sample against the Astros' active lineup, holding them to a .229 BA and a .376 SLG in 109 at-bats. Toronto is 19-9 in his starts this year, even though his 108 ERA+ is only scraping above league average.
Sept. 11: RHP Cristian Javier (1-2, 4.43 ERA) vs. RHP Kevin Gausman (9-10, 3.63 ERA)
- Thursday marks Javier's second road start of the season, and the first one was a mess (2.0 IP, three hits, four walks, five runs). In his career, Javier has a 2.81 ERA at home and a 4.56 ERA on the road.
- Gausman was on the wrong end of a 7-0 loss to the Astros in April, but he has largely dominated Houston over the years. In 107 at-bats against the active lineup, Gausman has held the club to a .168 BA and a .290 SLG while posting a 42.0% K rate.
Who's hot and who's not
George Springer (DH/OF): Springer started the year as a heart-of-the-order bat, but he's back where he belongs in Toronto's leadoff spot. Since coming off the injured list in mid-August, Springer has a .346/.446/.731 slash line in 20 games. He's 15-5 vs. his run prop in that span while averaging 2.9 total bases per game.
Addison Barger (OF): With three right-handed pitchers on the docket for Houston this week, the left-hitting Barger should see plenty of opportunities to bust out of his four-week slump. Since Aug. 12, Barger is 12-for-73 (.164) with just three extra-base hits and 18 strikeouts.
Yordan Alvarez (DH/OF): A hand injury kept Alvarez out for the better part of four months, but he's come back in a major way for Houston. In 12 games since returning, Alvarez has three HRs and a 1.229 OPS. He has multiple hits in four of his past six.
Jose Altuve (2B): Altuve is batting .162 with a sub-.300 SLG in his past 25 games. And he's hitless in 14 of those. Interestingly, the veteran infielder is pretty much the only Astro with encouraging numbers against Gausman (5-for-14, one HR, two doubles).
Astros vs. Blue Jays preview: Betting trends
- Toronto has the 2nd-best run line record in MLB (84-60, 58.3%).
- The Astros have the 6th-worst run line record overall (67-77, 46.5%) ... but their run line record on the road is much better (38-31, 55.1%).
- Overs are 80-57-6 in Blue Jays games (1st in MLB).
- In the Jays' past nine home games, overs are 8-1.
- Unders went 3-0 in the Astros/Blue Jays series in April. The teams combined to score just 17 total runs (5.7 runs/game).
- Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has 2+ hits in five straight games.
- Bo Bichette has gone over 1.5 total bases in 11 of his past 15 games.
