The Michigan State Spartans host the Purdue Boilermakers in a compelling, top-15 clash on Tuesday night.
The pregame narrative: No. 14 Michigan State is favoured to win, but I'll take the points with No. 13 Purdue. I also expect the Boilermakers to stay hot offensively and clear their projected total.
Check out my Purdue vs. Michigan State picks for the men's college basketball matchup on Feb. 18.
Purdue vs. Michigan State picks
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Best Bet: Purdue +4.5 (-127)
You could argue that Purdue is at the low point of its season, which is really saying something about how well the season has gone.
The Boilermakers just lost by 10 at home against No. 11 Wisconsin, marking the second time this season they've lost back-to-back games.
As underdogs tonight in East Lansing, Michigan, the Boilermakers are expected to lose again. And maybe they will, but I see value in banking +4.5 points with the visitors.
- Purdue is 6-2 ATS on the road this season.
- Prior to Saturday's loss against Wisconsin, Purdue had covered a +4.5 spread in 13 consecutive games.
- Michigan State is 2-3 outright in its past five games.
The Spartans are a dreadful 3-point shooting team (29.1%), ranking 353rd out of 364 NCAA Division I schools. But they shoot free throws exceptionally well, with the fourth-highest FT% in the country (80.6%).
Those traits should play right into Purdue's hands.
The Boilermakers funnel their opponents outside the arc, allowing 43.3% of all shot attempts to come from 3-point range (52nd-most in D-I). Also, Purdue yields just 16.7 free throw attempts to its opponents (73rd).
Key stat: Since Jan. 1, Purdue is 10-3 ATS (all of those games were in conference play).
Quick picks
Purdue over 72.5 points (-118): Michigan State is a strong defensive team, especially beyond the arc. But few teams have tested the Spartans like Purdue can.
The Boilermakers have three players shooting better than 38.0% from deep on 2.5 attempts or more.
Don't get the wrong impression about Purdue, though. This isn't a team that'll just chuck a bunch of 3s and hope for the best. The Boilermakers rank inside the top 30 in the country in both 3PT% and 2PT%.
Michigan State's average offensive possession is 16.9 seconds, per KenPom.com, which is 96th-fastest in D-I. If the Spartans push the pace a bit, that'll give the Boilermakers more scoring opportunities of their own.
Purdue has cashed this bet in six consecutive games.
Fletcher Loyer 2+ threes (-132): Loyer's 3-point stroke is among the most efficient in the country. I wish he'd shoot more, but a pair of made 3s isn't too much of an ask.
Shooting at a 45.3% clip from outside, Loyer is 47th in D-I in 3-point percentage. He's cashed this bet in four straight games, as well as nine of his past 14.
Michigan State's opponents have really struggled to score from outside (28.9 3PT%, eighth in D-I), but the chances are there.
The Spartans allow 24.0 attempted 3s per game. If Loyer accounts for five or six of them, I love his chances of cashing this prop.
Picks made at 12:35 p.m. ET on 02/18/2025.
