A trio of college basketball games in the 9 p.m. ET window have my attention for a +327 parlay.
The pregame narrative: The No. 5 Houston Cougars play at a snail's pace, and I expect that to affect the free-wheeling ways of the Arizona State Sun Devils. I'm counting on an alt under in that game, and I'm taking the under in a matchup between the No. 17 Kansas Jayhawks and the BYU Cougars.
Check out my NCAA basketball predictions for Feb. 18.
NCAA basketball predictions
Parlay: Houston/Arizona St. u138.5 pts | Kansas/BYU u151.5 points | Colorado St. ML (+327)
Houston/Arizona State under 138.5 points (-157): Even after teasing it up, this is the third-lowest total the Sun Devils have faced all season. But given the Cougars' style of play, this under makes perfect sense to me.
Houston plays at the fifth-slowest adjusted tempo in NCAA Division I, per KenPom.com.
Arizona State has cashed five consecutive overs, but other slow-paced Big 12 schools have bogged down the Sun Devils in the past.
Aside from Houston, the three slowest-paced teams in the conference are West Virginia, Baylor and Cincinnati. Unders went 3-0 when Arizona State faced those schools (and all three games finished below 138.5 points).
Seven of Houston's past 10 games have gone under this number.
Other parlay picks
Kansas/BYU under 151.5 points (-150): Kansas tends to drag down scoring against everyone it faces, and I view BYU as the next victim.
Unders are 19-6 (76.0%) in Jayhawks games this year, cashing at the highest rate in D-I, per Team Rankings.
That includes a 7-2 unders record on the road.
A whopping 48.0% of BYU's field goal attempts come beyond the arc, which is the 17th-highest rate in the country. Given that Kansas' defence allows the ninth-lowest 3PT% (29.2), that might not be a winning strategy for the Cougars.
This under has cashed in three straight BYU games, as well as three of Kansas' past four.
Colorado State moneyline (-180): The Colorado State Rams snuck past the Nevada Wolfpack, 82-80, when the teams played in Nevada back in December.
Now the Rams have home-court advantage, which heightens their chances to win again.
- Colorado State is 11-2 at home. One of those losses came against New Mexico (the Mountain West leader), while the other was an overtime defeat in November against UC Riverside.
- Nevada is 3-5 on the road, including 0-3 as a road underdog.
BartTorvik.com projects a 75% win probability for the Rams, which is well ahead of the implied probability of this line (64.3%).
One of Nevada's weaknesses is that its opponents tend to get to the free throw line with ease. The Wolfpack allow 19.5 free throw attempts per game (217th in D-I).
The Rams are among the best free-throw-shooting teams in the country (78.0%, 19th), so I expect them to capitalize.
Picks made at 10:00 a.m. ET 02/18/2025
