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It's Independence Day south of the border, meaning we've got MLB games from noon till midnight.
Today's MLB props narrative: Christian Yelich is on fire and Mookie Betts is slumping. But they both have favourable matchups against a pair of struggling pitchers and should find ways to produce. Before that, I'm looking toward Gavin Sheets to deliver an RBI for the San Diego Padres.
Check out my top MLB prop bets for July 4.
MLB prop bets
Best bet: Yelich over 1.5 total bases (-108)
Yelich put a slow start to the year behind him by catching fire in the second half of June. Check out his numbers over the last 15 games:
- .390 batting average
- .695 slugging percentage
- 1.132 OPS
- Six doubles, four HRs
In that span, Yelich has a .315 xBA and a 53% hard-hit rate, per Baseball Savant. Both of those would rank in the 90th percentile or higher over a full season, so we know this is no fluke.
Can he sustain that type of production? Probably not. But tonight, he should be able to keep it going.
Yelich goes up against Sandy Alcantara, who sports an ugly 6.98 ERA. The righty ranks in the bottom-25 percentile for K rate, hard-hit rate, xERA and xBA.
Alcantara relies on a 4-seamer/sinker combo nearly 50% of his pitches which clocks in the upper-90s. Yelich is batting .325 with a .525 SLG against RHP fastballs over 95 mph.
Key stat: Yelich is 10-5 against this line in his last 15 games.
Best MLB picks
Betts to score (-117): I'm sure more would be made about Betts' dip in production if the Dodgers didn't have an embarrassment of riches to cover it up.
The eight-time All-Star is posting career lows in batting average (.246), slugging percentage (.383) and OPS (.704) — so why back him?
Betts has had a ton of success against Houston Astros starter Lance McCullers Jr., and McCullers is really fighting it at the moment.
- Betts vs. McCullers: 7-for-15, .619 OBP, 1 K
- McCullers 2025 stats: 6.61 ERA, 1.62 WHIP
The righty has a sixth percentile walk rate (12.9%), which is another boon for this wager.
Sheets over 0.5 RBI (+180): Sheets is far from the biggest name on San Diego's star-studded roster, but that's the point.
He hits behind guys like Fernando Tatis Jr., Manny Machado, Jackson Merrill, and Luis Arraez, which is an A-plus spot from run production.
The Padres face Texas Rangers righty Kumar Rocker, who is getting tee'd up in his sophomore season:
- 6.13 ERA (5.55 xERA)
- .302 BA (.297 xERA)
- 1.54 WHIP
The left-hitting Sheets has a .267/.332/.490 slash line against RHP. That's not amazing but it's still better than his numbers against lefties, indicating a slight platoon advantage.
MLB prop picks made at 9:07 a.m. ET on 07/04/2025.
