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Jannik Sinner headlines Saturday's Wimbledon action from the All England Club.
The pregame narrative: Sinner aims to inch one step closer to his first finals appearance at Wimbledon in his third-round match versus Pedro Martinez. Elsewhere, Flavio Cobolli battles Jakub Mensik, and Grigor Dimitrov takes on Sebastian Ofner.
Check out my top Wimbledon predictions for July 5.
Wimbledon predictions: July 5
Best Bet: Cobolli to win (+143)
Cobolli is a decently sized underdog in this matchup, but there is value backing him to win over Jakub Mensik.
Firstly, Cobolli has been stacking some very impressive results together ahead of this tournament. He won eight of his last 11 matches before arriving at the All England Club, including a tournament win at Bad Homgburg.
Two of his three losses during this stretch were to world No. 3 Alexander Zverev, and that's certainly nothing Cobolli should be ashamed of.
Mensik wasn't nearly as impressive, dropping four of his seven matches over the same period.
Secondly, he enters this matchup with the same record as Mensik on grass courts this year (4-2), proving that there is very little separating these two.
Lastly, Cobolli holds a noticeable serve advantage, which is notable on grass courts that favour stronger servers. The Italian ranks 65th in serve rating on grass over the last 52 weeks, while Mensik is 83rd.
Key stat: Cobolli is tied with Novak Djokovic for 28th among all ATP competitors in percentage of second serves won (55.9%).
Wimbledon best bet: Dimitrov vs. Ofner
Dimitrov -2.5 sets (+200): It's a little surprising to see that this is the first meeting between two tennis veterans.
Dimitrov, 34, and Ofner, 29, are not new to the All England Club. The former, however, is the only one who has had repeated success at this tournament.
Dimitrov has advanced to the fourth round in each of his last two runs at Wimbledon. His best finish at the tournament was a semifinal appearance in 2014.
Ofner earned a third-round appearance at Wimbledon in 2017, but hadn't won a match at the tournament until this year.
The Bulgarian tennis star also owns a strong record on grass over the last three years. He's 13-4 on the surface compared to Ofner's 12-8 mark over the same stretch.
Dimitrov is also an elite server on grass, while Ofner isn't. He ranks ninth in serve rating, while Ofner is 89th.
Dimitrov has only lost one set across two matches at Wimbledon. I expect him to cruise against the lowest-ranked player he's faced yet (Ofner is world No. 165).
Best Bet: Sinner vs. Martinez
Sinner -10.5 games (-118): This is a large line for anybody to cover, but Sinner is making it look easy.
The Italian superstar has won twice by this margin already at the tournament. Sinner beat Luca Nardi by 11 games in the first round and Aleksandar Vukic by 13 games in the second round.
Martinez has only lost one set at Wimbledon through two matches, but playing Sinner is very different than battling Mariano Navone or George Loffhagen.
The Spanish tennis star is not having a great campaign. He's a poor 13-20 overall, and his career record on grass is equally unimpressive.
Martinez is 6-12 on grass in his career.
Wimbledon predictions made at 12:35 p.m. on 07/04/2025.
