The Houston Rockets welcome in the Golden State Warriors on Thursday ahead of the NBA all-star break.
The pregame narrative: Both teams played last night with Houston winning in a strong team effort. Alperen Sengun chipped in with 17 points and 13 rebounds and I expect him to keep rolling against an undersized Golden State squad. Also, take the over on Steph Curry's rebound total.
Check out my Warriors vs. Rockets prop picks for Feb. 13.
Warriors vs. Rockets prop picks
Best bet: Sengun over 31.5 points and rebounds (-103)
This is a smash spot for me.
Sengun has put together a few monster games recently, is having his best rebounding year (10.4/game), and draws a dream matchup against the Warriors.
Golden State doesn't have an everyday centre and runs a rotation with rookie Quinton Post — who plays less than 20 minutes a night — and 6-foot-9 Kevon Looney. Sometimes, Draymond Green even starts at the No. 5.
Simply backing Sengun's 10.5 rebound total at -132 would play but I want to tap into his scoring as well.
The centre erupted for 26 points and 11 rebounds the last time he played Golden State and is averaging 21.0 PPG in his last five against them. Check out these stats courtesy of Cleaning the Glass:
- Golden State has the second-worst mid-range defence in the NBA (47.0%).
- Sengun takes 45.0% of his shots from the mid-range, ranking in the 89th percentile for all NBA players.
On top of that, the Warriors are playing their sixth-straight road game and third in four nights. I expect the 22-year-old to tear apart a worn-down opponent.
Key stat: Sengun has cleared this mark in three of his last four games (excluding a Feb. 9 matchup vs. Raptors where he left after three minutes due to back spasms).
Quick pick
Curry 5+ rebounds (+123): The Rockets are a weird, weird rebounding team.
Since Jan. 1 they rank first in offensive rebounding rate (38.1) and 24th in defensive rebounding rate (64.6%), according to NBA.com.
Curry isn't going to be crashing the offensive glass but does pick up plenty of defensive boards as he looks to lead his team in transition.
He's cleared this line in three of his last four games while landing on four in the outlier. At plus money, this seems like a nice value play.
Picks made at 11:06 a.m. ET 02/13/2025.
