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The San Diego Padres host the Texas Rangers in a star-studded Saturday night matchup.
The pregame narrative: San Diego is favoured to win at home behind Stephen Kolek, who is quietly putting together a solid season. Patrick Corbin gets the ball for the Rangers after a string of poor starts and is worth fading.
Check out my Rangers vs. Padres predictions, including prop picks on Evan Carter and Fernando Tatis Jr.
Rangers vs. Padres predictions
Parlay: Padres -0.5 F5 innings | Tatis over 0.5 hits | Langford over 0.5 hits (+390)
Padres -0.5 F5 innings (+112): I want to capitalize on San Diego's pitching advantage tonight.
Corbin has been one of the worst arms in baseball over the last five seasons, posting an ERA of 5.20 or higher from 2021-2024.
He's been a bit better this year with the Rangers, sporting a 4.26 ERA through 15 starts. But things have begun to slide for the veteran lefty (5.28 ERA in June), and San Diego isn't an offence to mess around with.
On the other end is Kolek, who just posted a 3.38 ERA across six starts in June. His team went 3-3 on the F5 moneyline in those outings.
The Rangers have also been horrible at the plate, with the fifth-lowest wRC+ against righties this year.
MLB SGP legs
Tatis over 0.5 hits (-345): You could back Tatis to go over 1.5 bases, which would bring this parlay all the way up to +575 — but I'm not trying to get greedy.
Tatis should have his way against Corbin despite his underwhelming results against LHP this year.
The star outfielder is slashing .186/.297/.267 vs. LHP but has better career-long numbers against lefties than righties, which makes sense.
Corbin, meanwhile, has gotten rocked by righties this year to the tune of a .283 opponent batting average. His 23rd percentile xBA (.268) also speaks volumes about his arsenal.
Carter over 0.5 hits (-124): I'm not really sure why this is priced so close to even money and strongly recommend playing it as a standalone.
- Carter is on an eight-game hit streak, batting .355 in that span.
- The 22-year-old outfielder is batting .333 since the beginning of June, too, so it's not like this hot streak is an anomaly.
- He has a platoon advantage against Kolek, and is batting .287 vs. RHP this season.
That all checks out to me.
Rangers vs. Padres predictions made at 2:46 p.m. ET on 07/04/2025.
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