The NL MVP frontrunner and an NL Cy Young short-lister square off tonight when the Los Angeles Dodgers host the Philadelphia Phillies.
The pregame narrative: Shohei Ohtani and Cristopher Sanchez will take the mound tonight in a potential playoff preview. The Phillies have already clinched the NL East, while the Dodgers are 2.0 games ahead in their division.
Check out my Phillies vs. Dodgers SGP predictions for Sept. 16, with prop bets on Ohtani, Sanchez and Harrison Bader.
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Phillies vs. Dodgers predictions
Parlay: Phillies +1.5 | Sanchez over 4.5 Ks | Ohtani under 1.5 bases | Bader over 0.5 hits (+375)
Phillies +1.5 (-190): The Dodgers are the World Series favourites, but I don't care. When Sanchez is on the mound, this amount of cushion tends to be an excellent play.
- Philadelphia is 24-5 vs. a +1.5 run line with Sanchez this season. The Phillies are 21-8 SU in his outings.
- Sanchez is third in the majors in FIP (2.56) and fourth in ERA (2.57).
Philly is five games ahead of L.A. in the standings, and the Phillies are 3-1 vs. the Dodgers this season. Their four matchups were decided by a total of five runs, and yesterday's game required extras.
This season series has been exceptionally even, which makes this cushion feel comfortable on the Phillies' side.
As does the fact that Philadelphia has an MLB-best 140 wRC+ over the past 30 days (Los Angeles has a 112 wRC+ in the same span).
Fade Ohtani at the plate
Ohtani under 1.5 bases (-155): Ohtani is on his way to a fourth MVP trophy in five seasons, and it's largely thanks to his hitting abilities.
He's also on his way to leading the majors in total bases for a second consecutive year. Right now, he's averaging 2.34 bases per game.
Still, I feel comfortable fading him for a few reasons.
- Recent form: Ohtani has gone under 1.5 bases in 15 of his past 22 games.
- Sanchez's home run suppression: Sanchez has the lowest HR/9 in the majors (0.49).
- Ohtani's two-way duties: In Ohtani's past 10 starts as a pitcher, the under on his bases prop is 6-4.
Ohtani is 3-for-14 (.231) vs. Sanchez with zero extra-base hits and four strikeouts.
More SGP picks
Sanchez over 4.5 strikeouts (-210): Sanchez started against the Dodgers back in early April, and he tallied nine Ks over 5.2 innings.
His 9.5 K/9 this year is a solid rate — and a career high — and it means he's well positioned to clear this modest total each time out.
- Sanchez is averaging 6.6 Ks per start.
- He has 5+ Ks in 24 of 29 games.
- He's 13-1 vs. this prop since June 26, averaging 7.1 Ks per game in that span.
Sanchez ranks in the 75th percentile or better in strikeout rate, chase rate and whiff rate.
It's been 20 starts since he last failed to pitch into the sixth inning, so expect him to have ample opportunities to get to this number.
Bader over 0.5 hits (-162): Bader, a trade deadline acquisition by the Phillies, has really proven his worth for his new club. Especially this month.
In September, the speedy outfielder is 23-for-58 (.397) with only three walks. He strikes out a fair amount, but the free-swinging tendencies are better than if he were drawing a bunch of free passes.
Ohtani won't be a fun guy for Bader to face, but at least the platoon advantage is on his side.
Right-handed batters, like Bader, have a .306 BA vs. Ohtani this year. Lefties, meanwhile, are batting just .167.
Phillies vs. Dodgers predictions made at 11:19 a.m. ET on 09/16/2025.
