Sporting a five-game division lead and a six-game win streak, the Toronto Blue Jays face the Tampa Bay Rays on Wednesday night.
The pregame narrative: The Rays rocked Kevin Gausman back in May (5.2 innings, 10 hits, six runs), but he's on fire for Toronto right now. Gausman and the Jays are favoured as they look to grab a series win in South Florida.
Check out my Blue Jays best bets vs. the Rays for Sept. 17, including prop picks on Gausman and Ernie Clement.
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Blue Jays best bets vs. Rays
Best bet: Gausman over 18.5 outs (+125)
Gausman is in the zone right now, coming off three deep and effective starts for the Blue Jays.
In his past three outings, the veteran right-hander has allowed just 10 hits and two runs over 24.0 innings. That includes a two-hit shutout against a talented Astros team last time out.
Coming off back-to-back starts of 100+ pitches, I might typically be wary of backing Gausman at this outs total.
But he had an extra day of rest thanks to Trey Yesavage's spot start, so that shouldn't be a concern.
Also, Toronto's bullpen could use a bit of a breather, with four of its eight arms likely unavailable tonight.
- Jeff Hoffman, Seranthony Dominguez and Brendon Little all pitched in Games 1 and 2 of this series.
- Converted starter Eric Lauer threw 22 pitches over 1.1 innings last night. He has never pitched on back-to-back days in his MLB career.
- Neither Braydon Fisher nor Louis Varland pitched yesterday, but they've worked three of the previous five days.
Gausman is averaging 18.4 outs per start this season, and he's cashing this bet more often than not right now. He has pitched into the seventh inning or later in eight of his past 10 starts.
I'm riding with the right-hander to keep shoving.
Key stat: Gausman is averaging 20.4 outs over his past 10 starts, posting a 2.25 ERA in that span.
Jays prop picks
Clement over 1.5 total bases (+138): Clement is still one of MLB's best hitters against left-handed pitching in 2025, and I'm still a fan of getting him at a price like this.
Check out his MLB ranks vs. LHPs this season:
- 9th in SLG (.557)
- 11th in BA (.329)
- 14th in wRC+ (149)
Over his past 11 games, Clement is 7-4 vs. this prop while posting a .325/.372/.475 slash line.
Like the rest of Toronto's lineup, Clement will face Tampa Bay southpaw Ian Seymour for the first time. Seymour's three-pitch mix consists of four-seamers, cutters and changeups.
Clement is slugging .557 vs. that pitch mix when facing LHPs this season, per Baseball Savant.
Blue Jays best bets made at 9:37 a.m. ET on 09/17/2025.
