Ryne Nelson has been solid all season long for the Arizona Diamondbacks, and he headlines my MLB prop bets.
Today's MLB props narrative: Elsewhere, Mike Trout and the Los Angeles Angels look for a bounce-back against the Athletics. Earlier in the afternoon, look for Bobby Witt Jr. to produce offence for the Kansas City Royals.
Check out my favourite MLB prop bets for Sept. 7.
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MLB prop bets
Best bet: Nelson over 15.5 outs (-125)
Nelson has been efficiently eating innings all season, and I think this is another chance for the Diamondbacks starter to work overtime.
In 19 starts this season, he's averaging 5.2 innings per outing.
So on an average night, he's clearing this line, but he can shove against the Boston Red Sox.
Boston has slowed down significantly since its midseason surge. The ballclub has lost three straight and was outscored 15-6 in the first two games of this series.
It's a small sample size, but Nelson has dominated this Red Sox lineup. As a total, the offence is 3-for-23 (.087) off Nelson with no walks.
Key stat: Arizona's starter has gone exactly 6.0 innings in three straight starts.
Best MLB picks
Trout to score (-108): Trout's .229 batting average this season is far from spectacular, but his .363 on-base percentage is still very good.
He only has three hits in his last four games, but because of his 98th-percentile walk rate (16.3%), he's 3-1 against this wager during that time.
On top of that, Trout goes against Luis Severino, and he has two hits and two walks in six plate appearances vs. the righty in his career.
Taylor Ward, Yoan Moncada and Zach Neto also each hit above .300 against Severino.
Those three usually surround Trout in the batting order and should be able to drive him home if given the opportunity.
Witt to score (-137): There is juice to pay here, but it's well worth it with how Witt's been playing.
- Over his last 22 games, he's scored 19 runs and is 16-6 against this wager.
- Witt ranks 14th in the majors with 90 runs scored this season.
Plus, he has a nice matchup on Sunday vs. Bailey Ober and the Minnesota Twins. Witt has 12 hits in 28 at-bats (.429) against Ober in his career, with just three Ks.
Ober has been getting shelled recently, too. Over his last seven starts, he has a 5.97 ERA while giving up 12 home runs.
Even with the price, there is solid value on Witt in this spot.
MLB prop picks made at 8:20 a.m. ET on 09/07/2025.
