Eugenio Suarez and Juan Soto are both swinging hot bats right now, and they're the MLB home run targets I'm most excited about on Monday night.
Today's MLB HR narrative: Suarez is five homers shy of 50, while Soto is quickly approaching 40. Both players are in MLB's top 20 in slugging percentage over the past two weeks.
Check out the best MLB home run picks and analysis for Sept. 8.
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MLB home run picks
Best Bet: Suarez to hit a home run (+390)
I'm loving this price for a guy who's been among the very best home run hitters this season.
- Suarez's 45 homers are the fourth-most in MLB this season, ahead of guys like Aaron Judge and Pete Alonso.
- The third baseman homered in back-to-back games over the weekend to close out the Mariners' road trip. He also homered in back-to-back games at the end of their most recent homestand (Aug. 26-27).
The main issue when Suarez digs in at the plate is his propensity to swing and miss.
But when he's facing a soft-tossing, low-strikeout guy — as is the case tonight — that concern largely goes away.
Miles Mikolas is on the mound for the St. Louis Cardinals tonight. He ranks in the third percentile in both whiff rate and strikeout rate, per Baseball Savant.
Suarez knows a thing or two about Mikolas, as the pair has a decent volume of head-to-head matchups on their ledger. Seattle's slugger is 9-for-19 (.474) vs. Mikolas with four HRs and a double.
Mikolas' home/road splits are another noteworthy factor. He loves to work inside St. Louis' Busch Stadium, but things get quite dicey elsewhere:
- Home (14 starts): 7 HRs allowed, .360 opponent SLG
- Road (13 starts): 17 HRs allowed, .623 opponent SLG
Key stat: Over his past 20 games, Suarez has eight HRs and a .964 OPS.
Best HR predictions
Soto to hit a home run (+360): According to Baseball Savant's park factors data, Philadelphia's Citizens Bank Park is the most homer-friendly venue for left-handed batters over the past three seasons.
In that span, LHBs are hitting 29% more homers in Philly than the league average.
That's a nice place to start when backing the left-hitting Soto, but it's far from the only reason I'm buying in on Monday.
- Soto has a .537 SLG and three HRs in 41 at-bats vs. Phillies starter Aaron Nola.
- In his past 30 games, Soto has 13 HRs and a .308/.468/.701 slash line. He also has more hits (33) and more walks (32) than strikeouts (29) in that span.
- Nola has posted a 9.96 ERA with nine HRs allowed in his past six starts.
Soto draws walks as well as anyone in the majors, but he's also tearing the cover off the ball when hittable pitches come his way.
He ranks in either the 98th or 99th percentile in hard-hit rate, xSLG and average exit velocity.
MLB home run picks made at 9:12 a.m. ET on 09/08/2025.
