Every MLB team is in action on Saturday and I've got three prop bets for the action.
Today's MLB props narrative: Shohei Ohtani makes his fourth start as a pitcher this season, going opposite Houston's Framber Valdez. I'm looking to capitalize on Ohtani's spotty track record against Valdez, who has been a stud in his own right this season.
Check out my top MLB prop bets for July 5, featuring picks on Gleyber Torres and Gavin Sheets.


MLB prop bets
Best bet: Torres to score (-115)
Torres is having a renaissance in his first season with the Tigers.
The second baseman is posting a career-high batting average (.279) and his best OPS (.809) since 2019, when he was a New York Yankee.
Are those earth-shattering numbers? No. But Torres has gotten better as the year has gone on and is doing a ton of damage against left-handed pitching.
- .299/.386/.474 slash line in June
- .300/.412/.543 slash line vs. LHP
Logan Allen gets the ball for the Cleveland Guardians today, and he's been struggling. The southpaw struggles to miss bats and issues up a ton of walks, leading to a 4.27 ERA and 1.49 WHIP.
I was debating backing Torres over 1.5 bases at plus money, but feel more comfortable taking him to score as the leadoff man on the road.
Detroit has the second-best wRC+ vs. LHP this year (136), so I trust the lineup to drive Torres home once he gets on.
Key stat: Torres has scored six runs in his last six games, going 4-2 vs. this line.
Best MLB picks
Ohtani under 0.5 runs (-108): Fading the best player on the best offence in baseball is risky business, but I think it makes sense here.
Ohtani is all too familiar with Valdez from his days with the Los Angeles Angels, and the head-to-head matchup skews heavily with the pitcher.
- Ohtani is 5-for-36 against Valdez with 12 strikeouts and six walks.
- His .169 xBA and .281 xSLG in those matchups indicate Valdez hasn't gotten lucky.
Houston's lefty is also on fire, with a 1.57 ERA in his last seven starts, so this seems like a good spot to throw down a rare fade on Ohtani.
Sheets over 0.5 RBI (+210): I backed Sheets on this market yesterday, and he went 2-for-4 without driving anyone in. But I'll gladly go back to that well in a plus matchup today.
The outfielder hits behind Fernando Tatis Jr., Manny Machado, Jackson Merrill, and Luis Arraez, which is right where we want to be for run production.
Especially against Texas Rangers southpaw Patrick Corbin, who has been MLB's whipping boy over the past few seasons:
- 5.20 ERA or higher from 2021-2024
- 4.26 ERA this season
- 5.28 ERA in June
Corbin has generally done well to shut down left-hitting batters this season, holding them to a .209/.270/374 slash line. But Sheets is swinging a hot bat and has hit LHP well enough this year (.263 BA) for me to buy in.
MLB prop picks made at 9:55 a.m. ET on 07/05/2025.