Coors Field has my attention when looking for MLB home run picks on Saturday.
Today's MLB HR narrative: Colorado is never a bad place for the long ball. The San Diego Padres visit the Colorado Rockies tonight, putting Manny Machado and Fernando Tatis Jr. in a prime position to mash.
Check out the best MLB home run picks and analysis for Sept. 6, featuring Corbin Carroll.
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MLB home run picks
Best Bet: Machado to hit a home run (+350)
It's impossible to ignore how Coors Field can really boost a home run pick.
Everything is just a little bit different in Denver. The area's thin, dry air makes it a hitter's paradise. Here's how it ranks among several key categories per MLB Park Factors:
- 1st in overall Park Factor (112).
- 1st in wOBACon (112).
- 1st in BACON (113)
- T-8th in HR (105)
And while the environmental conditions should help San Diego's offence, so should the pitcher it'll see.
Rookie McCade Brown will make his third-ever appearance. His numbers thus far aren't pretty.
Brown enters tonight's contest with an 8.22 ERA and 6.66 FIP across 7.2 innings pitched. He's allowed one home run and a pair of doubles in his young MLB career.
Machado hasn't been hitting the ball well lately, but he does have one homer in his last two games. I'm betting on that being a sign of more to come.
Key stat: Machado has 10 home runs in 56 games at the ballpark in his career, the most he has at any venue he's played 60 games or less.
Best HR predictions
Tatis to hit a home run (+340): Tatis benefits from all the same Coors Field perks as Machado, but he also experiences a significant platoon boon against right-handed pitching.
The Padres battled lefty Kyle Freeland on Friday to little success. The team scored one run, and Tatis went a disappointing 1-for-3.
But those who know Tatis' splits know that he struggles mightily against lefties:
- Tatis has a .281/.376/.470 slash line vs. righties.
- He has a much worse .209/.343/.317 slash line vs. lefties this season.
- Tatis has 16 homers vs. righties and three home runs vs. lefties.
Luckily, Brown is a righty.
Tatis has one home run in four games at Coors Field in 2025.
Carroll to hit a home run (+390): Carroll is heating up, and I want in.
The Arizona Diamondbacks star is seeing the ball very well ahead of tonight's matchup vs. the Boston Red Sox. He has three home runs and five extra-base hits in his last six games.
One of those came in yesterday's series opener against Boston, and I expect more of the same today.
Lucas Giolito gets the start for the Red Sox, and his 3.38 ERA provides a misleading look at his season results.
Giolito's advanced numbers are downright brutal:
- 4.98 xERA (15th percentile)
- .272 xBA (19th percentile)
The game is at Chase Field, which is fourth in MLB Park Factors (103). Expect a strong showing from the do-it-all outfielder.
MLB home run picks made at 10:32 a.m. ET on 09/06/2025.
