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Wednesday's MLB home run picks may not have a ton of brand recognition, but there is a +700 play on the menu.
Today's MLB HR narrative: Austin Slater might be an unlikely HR candidate, but there are some notable factors working in his favour tonight. Elsewhere, Cam Smith looks to continue an impressive power surge at the plate.
Check out the best MLB home run picks for July 2.
MLB home run picks
Best bet: Smith to hit a home run (+380)
Less than a year ago, Smith was a first-round draftee by the Chicago Cubs.
Now, after being the centrepiece of a trade that sent Kyle Tucker to Chicago, Smith is shining as a big-leaguer with Houston.
The right-hitting outfielder has a solid .777 OPS (118 OPS+), and he's trending up in the past few weeks.
Since June 13, Smith is slugging .600 in a 17-game span. That includes four multi-hit games — and two home runs — in his past five.
Tonight, Smith's Astros face Rockies left-hander Austin Gomber at the offence-friendly Coors Field. According to Baseball Savant's park factors, runs are scored at a 25% higher clip at Coors relative to the league average.
Gomber allowed an NL-high 30 home runs last season. Dating back to 2023, he's coughed up 59 dingers in 60 starts.
Smith has been crushing the ball lately, and he has excellent numbers against lefties. Playing at Coors Field is just icing on the cake.
Key stat: Against LHPs, Smith is slugging .634 with four HRs in just 41 at-bats.
Best HR predictions
Slater to hit a home run (+700): This is a long shot, so tread lightly. But there are some reasons to take a +700 flier on Slater tonight.
- Slater will be in a very familiar matchup against Dodgers left-hander Clayton Kershaw. In his career vs. Kershaw, Slater is 7-for-27 with three home runs and a double (.630 SLG).
- Dodger Stadium is the most homer-friendly park in the majors for right-hitting players (35% more HRs than average).
- Slater only has 78 at-bats this year, but in that small sample, he has a 15.4% barrel rate. If he were a qualified hitter, that would rank in the top 90th percentile in MLB.
Slater has never been a huge home run guy, but facing a familiar lefty at a homer-friendly park has my attention.
The corner outfielder has a respectable .789 OPS vs. LHPs in his career.
MLB home run picks made at 11:01 a.m. ET on 07/02/2025.
