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The Toronto Blue Jays look for another series win against the Boston Red Sox on Sunday.
The pregame narrative: Eric Lauer takes the mound for the Jays, and the lefty has been red-hot lately. He will be tasked with containing a Red Sox lineup that scored 15 runs in yesterday's contest.
Check out my Blue Jays picks vs. the Red Sox for June 29, featuring Lauer and Trevor Story.
Blue Jays picks vs. Red Sox
Best Bet: Lauer over 14.5 outs (-137)
There's some juice to get past with this line, but I think it's worth it. Let me explain.
- Lauer has been excellent for the Jays. He has a 2.21 ERA in 40.2 innings pitched.
- That forced John Schneider to move him from his bulk reliever role to a traditional starter.
- He's cleared this line in consecutive starts, logging over 5.0 IP and giving up two runs total.
The Jays simply need Lauer to eat some innings here, even if he doesn't bring his best stuff to Fenway Park.
Toronto only got 2.0 IP out of Chris Bassitt in yesterday's 15-1 loss and ended up using four relievers.
The high-leverage guys will still be available in the later innings, but the Jays will need someone to steer the ship to that point.
Despite the 15-run outburst yesterday, the Red Sox have scored two or fewer runs in six of 10 games since trading Rafael Devers.
Key stat: In June, Lauer has a 1.71 ERA in five appearances (three starts), and he owns an 85th-percentile xBA this season (.212), per Baseball Savant.
Quick pick
Story over 1.5 total bases (+120): Story is someone I could see doing damage in this matchup, so I'll back him in a market completely in his control.
The slugging infielder is the only player on the Red Sox who's seen Lauer more than five times in his career. And that 22-at-bat sample size gives us a lot to work with.
In those meetings, Story has a .364 average with two doubles and three home runs (.864 SLG).
The success probably stems from his platoon advantage in this matchup. Story bats .253 and has a .413 SLG against LHP this season. That's much better than his .227 average and .352 SLG against righties.
Blue Jays picks made at 10:01 a.m. ET on 06/28/2025.
