A battle between American League division leaders begins on Tuesday, as the Toronto Blue Jays host the Houston Astros.
The pregame narrative: Houston is just 3-6 in its past nine games and now faces a Toronto team that has dominated at home (45-24). Luis Garcia will make his second start of the year for the Astros, while the Blue Jays are turning to a rested Shane Bieber.
Check out my Blue Jays best bets vs. the Astros for Sept. 9, including props on George Springer and Jeremy Pena.
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Blue Jays best bets vs. Astros
Best bet: Blue Jays -1.5 (+130)
The Astros swept the Blue Jays when they last met in April. But that might as well have been light-years ago.
Take a look at how these teams have performed since the all-star break, and you'll see a much different story:
| Team | Record | Run Differential | wRC+ | ERA |
| Blue Jays | 27-20 | +48 | 134 | 4.34 |
| Astros | 22-26 | -37 | 92 | 4.42 |
The offensive discrepancy is what really stands out. Toronto has had the strongest lineup in the second half, while Houston isn't even swinging it at a league-average rate.
Toronto has had two off-days in the past week, which allowed the club to line up its rotation how it wanted. Bieber is expected to start Tuesday on an extra day of rest, which has been a great thing for him in his career.
- Four days' rest (69 starts): 3.39 ERA, .667 opponent OPS
- Five days' rest (48 starts): 2.64 ERA, .612 opponent OPS
Bieber had one messy inning last time out, but his first three starts with Toronto have been very strong overall. He has a 2.74 FIP and a 21:2 strikeout-to-walk ratio.
The Blue Jays are 2-1 vs. a -1.5 run line in those starts, too.
Each of the Astros' past six losses has come by multiple runs. I like Bieber and the Blue Jays to add to that string.
Key stat: Toronto has the second-best run line record in MLB (82-61, 57.3%), per Team Rankings.
Jays prop picks
Pena over 0.5 runs (+114): Although I like Toronto's chances to secure a win by margin, this plus-money price on Houston's leadoff man was too good to ignore.
Pena is enjoying a breakout season, with 20 steals and an .833 OPS, which led to his first all-star appearance.
He hasn't faced Bieber yet, but the Astros' lineup collectively has some strong numbers against the right-hander: 14-for-46 (.304) with an .882 OPS.
Pena's speed is an asset here, as is his relatively low strikeout rate (17.5%, 72nd percentile). I don't expect the Astros to drum up a ton of offence, but Pena is in the best position to score.
Springer over 1.5 total bases (-106): How can you not buy in on Springer's second-half surge?
The veteran has a .377/.472/.689 slash line in 31 games since the all-star break. He is 19-12 vs. this prop in that span.
Springer ranks in the 94th percentile or better in barrel rate, xBA and xSLG, per Baseball Savant. His 160 wRC+ this season is behind only the league's two MVP frontrunners, Shohei Ohtani and Aaron Judge.
It's incredible work for the 35-year-old, and it means a price like this is totally playable.
Especially when you consider that Springer is 3-for-7 with two home runs and a double vs. Garcia.
Blue Jays best bets made at 8:49 a.m. ET on 09/09/2025.
