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The Los Angeles Dodgers are massive favourites against the Colorado Rockies in a game with the highest projected total from Wednesday's MLB slate (11 runs).
The pregame narrative: Yoshinobu Yamamoto has been in a bit of a funk lately, but you wouldn't know it by L.A.'s -235 odds as a run line favourite. The Dodgers are 4-0 vs. the Rockies this season, including a 9-7 victory on the road last night.
Check out my Dodgers vs. Rockies predictions, including Andy Pages and Hunter Goodman.
Dodgers vs. Rockies predictions
Parlay: Rockies +5.5 | Pages over 1.5 total bases | Goodman over 0.5 hits (+295)
Rockies +5.5 (-250): I will have egg on my face if this parlay flops on this leg. And that could happen.
The Rockies (18-61) have a -204 run differential, which is more than twice as bad as any other team in the National League. It's not even the halfway point, and they almost have as many losses as the Dodgers had all of last season (64).
But, come on, this is a parlay-playable price for an insane amount of cushion.
- The Dodgers are 0-4 in Yamamoto's starts in June. He has a 5.23 ERA and a 5.26 FIP in that span. Overall, the Dodgers are 1-14 vs. a -5.5 run line with Yamamoto on the mound.
- Colorado has covered this line in all four matchups vs. L.A. so far this season.
- The Rockies are 52-17 vs. a +5.5 run line this year. Probably not something they're proud of, but still a strong hit rate for this line.
MLB SGP legs
Pages over 1.5 total bases (-118): Pages and Rockies starter Chase Dollander both have reverse splits. That means this righty-on-righty matchup actually works in Pages' favour.
The centrefielder has a .292/.333/.536 slash line vs. RHPs. As for Dollander, RHHs have a .278/.360/.505 slash line against him.
And everyone has been mashing Dollander in his home park. The rookie has allowed an unsightly 1.034 OPS at Coors Field.
If you're still not sold, consider that Pages is on a heater right now.
He went 2-for-5 with a double at Coors Field last night and is 15-8 vs. this prop in his past 23 starts.
Goodman over 0.5 hits (-265): Like Pages, Goodman is a second-year player who's really making waves offensively this season.
The first-year Rockie is batting a career-high .268 while posting a 53.8% hard-hit rate (94th percentile, per Baseball Savant).
In 17 starts this month, the catcher is 26-for-74 (.351) and cashed this bet all but once. And he has a .326 xBA in that span, per Baseball Savant, which legitimizes the impressive run.
After looking nearly untouchable through his first seven outings, Yamamoto has really cooled off. This month, he's allowed 12 runs on 24 hits in 20.2 innings.
Dodgers vs. Rockies predictions made at 1:50 p.m. ET on 06/25/2025.
