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Max Scherzer returns to the Toronto Blue Jays' rotation on Wednesday against the Cleveland Guardians.
The pregame narrative: Scherzer threw just three innings in his Jays debut before landing on the injured list with right thumb inflammation in late March. The 40-year-old is back in the mix, though, after a pair of stellar rehab outings in Triple-A. Cleveland counters with hard-throwing righty Gavin Williams.
Check out my Blue Jays picks vs. the Guardians for June 25, featuring Scherzer and Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
Blue Jays picks vs. Guardians
Best Bet: Guerrero over 1.5 total bases (+125)
Toronto's offence has been humming along nicely, and that's without Guerrero playing near his ceiling.
It looks like the $500-million man has found something, though. Check out his stats since the beginning of Toronto's last homestand (seven games).
- .360 batting average
- .720 slugging percentage
- Three doubles, two home runs
- 60% hard-hit rate
That's an encouraging sign, considering Guerrero has been hitting the cover off the ball all year (96th percentile hard-hit rate, 54.5%) with underwhelming results. Baseball Savant defines a "hard-hit ball" as a batted ball with an exit velocity of 95 mph or higher.
Guerrero ranks in the 100th percentile for xBA (.324) and in the 92nd for xSLG (.540), so I'm hoping he can continue turning those expected numbers into real results.
Williams isn't an ideal matchup for a bases prop because of his propensity to walk batters.
The righty has a fifth-percentile walk rate (12.9%) and has given up 16 BBs in his last five starts. But the righty's arsenal is something Guerrero should get after.
He throws an upper-90s fastball 43% of the time, and Guerrero has a .374 xBA and .613 xSLG vs. four-seamers above 95 mph.
Key stat: Guerrero is 5-2 against this line in his last seven games.
Quick pick
Scherzer over 4.5 strikeouts (-106): This is a bit of a risky pick considering Scherzer's injury history.
But the veteran wouldn't be returning to the lineup if he wasn't ready, and he's coming off an electric Triple-A start:
- 4.1 IP, 1 H, 0 ER, 8 K
Scherzer has always been an elite swing-and-miss arm, ranking in the 80th percentile or higher for K rate in every full season since 2015.
He also gets to go up against a struggling Guardians lineup. Cleveland has the sixth-highest K rate (24.5%) and fourth-lowest wRC+ (86) over the last 30 days.
Toronto also used five relievers last night, and four of them threw 10-plus pitches. A little length out of Scherzer would do wonders for this wager.
Blue Jays picks made at 9:52 a.m. ET on 06/25/2025.
