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Bryce Harper and Ketel Marte headline Tuesday's MLB home run picks.
Today's MLB HR narrative: Marte is swinging a red-hot bat and goes up against San Francisco's Hayden Birdsong, who is struggling to keep the ball in the yard. Harper, meanwhile, has a favourable matchup in his second start since returning from the injured list.
Check out the best MLB home run picks for July 1.
MLB home run picks
Best bet: Marte to hit a home run (+390)
Marte is MLB's best offensive second baseman right now, and it's not particularly close. The 31-year-old leads all qualified hitters in the position group in:
- Batting average (.300)
- Slugging percentage (.592)
- fWAR (3.0)
- wRC+ (173)
His 17 home runs are second to Tampa Bay's Brandon Lowe, but mind you, Lowe has played 21 additional games.
And Marte has been on fire over his last 10 outings, batting .350 with five home runs and a 1.211 OPS, so I'm hoping he'll catch Lowe tonight.
Birdsong profiles as the type of pitcher who can help make that happen.
The righty has a 6.38 ERA this month and has given up four home runs in his last three starts. Birdsong's 46.7% hard hit rate ranks in the 11th percentile, per Baseball Savant, and his 37.1% ground ball rate ranks in the 23rd percentile.
Marte is 1-for-2 against Birdsong with a home run.
Key stat: The switch-hitting Marte is slugging .644 vs. RHP this year.
Best HR predictions
Harper to hit a home run (+400): Here's hoping Harper's injury problems are behind him.
The two-time MVP missed 22 games with right wrist inflammation and was reinstated last night, when he went 0-for-2 with a walk and a hit by pitch.
Is it difficult to get into a groove coming off the IL? Sure. But Harper did go deep against the Toronto Blue Jays on June 3 after missing a handful of games with an elbow contusion.
And tonight, he has a solid matchup against San Diego's Nick Pivetta.
- Pivetta has given up nine home runs in his last 10 starts (1.467 HR/9).
- The righty is a fly ball pitcher, generating a ground ball on just 32.6% of balls in play (ninth percentile).
- Harper is 4-for-13 vs. Pivetta with two HRs.
Harper hasn't produced at an electric clip just yet, but his .285 xBA (85th percentile) and .503 xSLG (81st percentile) indicate good things should be coming.
MLB home run picks made at 9:51 a.m. ET on 07/01/2025.
