BET FINDER: Search & Bet!
Logan Webb gets the ball for the San Francisco Giants on Monday night as they open a four-game set against the Arizona Diamondbacks.
The pregame narrative: Webb has recorded a quality start (6.0 or more innings, three or fewer earned runs) in nine of his past 10 games. His Giants are modest road favourites over the Diamondbacks, who have lost four games in a row.
Check out my Giants vs. Diamondbacks predictions, including props on Willy Adames and Randal Grichuk in a +285 SGP.
Giants vs. Diamondbacks predictions
Parlay: Diamondbacks +1.5 F5 | Adames 1+ hits | Grichuk under 1.5 bases (+285)
Diamondbacks +1.5 - first 5 innings (-205): Ryne Nelson is back in the Diamondbacks' rotation after starting the year as a bulk reliever. And the results have been quite encouraging.
Part of the promotion was due to Corbin Burnes' season-ending elbow injury, but Nelson seems deserving of the spot now, too.
In seven games (six starts) since May 20, he has a 2.62 ERA and a .174 opponent batting average. And that's with one major blowup mixed in (seven runs in 3.0 innings vs. the Reds on June 7).
In five of six starts since late May, Nelson has allowed either one or zero runs.
In other words, he was covering this +1.5 first-five run line without any assistance from the Diamondbacks' offence.
But remember, Arizona does have a strong offence that can pick up the slack if needed. The D-backs rank fourth in F5 runs per game (2.98), per Team Rankings.
MLB SGP legs
Adames over 0.5 hits (-195): It's been a very trying year for Adames, and there's no way I'd lay this juice in a straight wager on him to get a hit.
But it takes this SGP from +123 to +285, so I'm happy to buy in.
Adames is 3-for-4 against Nelson, and he's finally putting together some solid overall numbers lately.
Over his past 18 games, the shortstop is batting .274 with an .844 OPS. His .275 xBA in that span, as measured by Baseball Savant, legitimizes Adames' recent results.
Adames (.209 BA) is barely over the Mendoza line for the season, but at least things are looking up.
Also, the right-handed Nelson has reverse splits, meaning that right-hitting players — like Adames — have performed much better against him than left-hitting players (.718 OPS vs. .505 OPS).
Grichuk under 1.5 total bases (-210): Grichuk isn't an everyday player at this point in his career, but if he's in the lineup tonight, I'll gladly fade him.
- The 33-year-old journeyman has posted career lows in batting average (.238) and slugging percentage (.400) this season.
- In June, Grichuk has a .180/.214/.240 slash line with 11 strikeouts and just two extra-base hits.
- Grichuk is 1-for-12 with four Ks vs. Webb.
Webb (7-5, 2.52 ERA) makes life tough on most hitters he faces. There's nothing that suggests Grichuk will have success in this matchup tonight.
Giants vs. Dodgers predictions made at 1:53 p.m. ET on 06/30/2025.
