Scottie Scheffler is the best golfer on the planet today. And it's not even close.
The 28-year-old is coming off an epic, nine-victory 2024 season that included his second Masters and Players titles, four signature event wins, the FedEx Cup and an Olympic gold medal.
Scheffler's 2024 was so good it's now on any short-list of the greatest single seasons in golf history by anyone not named Woods, Nicklaus, Hogan or Jones.
As great as his year was, a resume with only two majors isn't enough for consideration among the game's all-time greats.
Scheffler — who is making his first start of the season this week at Pebble Beach — might not replicate last year's totals, but I believe 2025 will be the year he cements his legacy.
Scottie Scheffler's 2024 in historical context
The phrase "generational talent" gets thrown around too often, but Scheffler's headshot (no, not the one you're thinking of) would look good next to it in a dictionary.
Nine wins in 21 starts is a simple way to measure Scheffler's 2024 season. But as incredible as that stat is, it still doesn't scratch the surface of how much better he was than his peers.
True strokes gained is an all-encompassing stat, courtesy of DataGolf, which averages the number of strokes you beat the field by in a given round (adjusted for the strength of that field).
Check out the list of Data Golf’s 10 Best Seasons since 1983. Not surprisingly, Tiger Woods' name litters the board, but there's Scheffler at No. 8.
You might recall Vijay Singh's legendary 2004 season when he won eight PGA Tour events including the PGA Championship. On paper, that might seem like a good comp for Scheffler's 2024 season.
Well, it's not.
Singh posted +2.57 true strokes gained in '04, meaning Scheffler was over half a stroke better than Vijay every time he tee'd it up.
Coincidentally, that's the same true strokes gained gap between Scheffler and Xander Schauffele last season.
In addition to his nine wins, Scheffler posted nine top 10s, including two runner-ups. He didn't miss a cut and had the lowest scoring average (68.01) in the modern era.
With that said, you could argue one major wasn't enough.
Majors or bust
At this point in Scheffler's career — world No. 1 with a pair of majors to his name — history will judge him on majors and majors alone.
Don’t believe me? Just ask Rory McIlroy and Jordan Spieth.
McIlroy has four majors to his name and dozens of wins worldwide, but amid a decade-long dry spell in which he has built up so much scar tissue, one has to wonder if he’ll ever reach the mountaintop again and re-shape his late career narrative.
As for Spieth — the former World No. 1 and close friend of Scheffler — rattled off three majors before his 24th birthday and seemed destined for all-time greatness. But in the years following his 2017 Open Championship, the 31-year-old has just four top-three finishes in 29 major starts.
Then there's Brooks Koepka, who has been vocal about his career goals. Winning PGA (and now LIV) events doesn't matter to him in the slightest with only four weeks circled on his calendar. With five majors, he's been the most successful champion of this generation.
You never know when a major window could slam shut, even for players as great as McIlroy and Spieth. And it's why Scheffler has to scoop up as many of them as possible during this epic run of form.
Scheffler is currently listed at -120 to win one major in 2025. Consider that for a moment. The 54.55% implied probability indicates he's more likely than not to take home at least one of golf's greatest prizes.
As crazy as it sounds, Scheffler left some hardware on the table last year.
He entered the PGA Championship in May as the overwhelming favourite at +300. But despite a solid T8 finish at Valhalla, he never looked quite right following his infamous arrest on the eve of the tournament. Following a disastrous T41 at the U.S. Open in June, Scheffler was in the mix during the final round of the Open Championship in July before fading to a T7.
The floor of expectation for Schefller in 2025 is one major. But I think he'll win two (+500), starting at The Masters.
The secret to Scottie Scheffler's success
A third green jacket in April would leave Scheffler behind only Arnold Palmer (four), Tiger Woods (five) and Jack Nicklaus (six) for the most all-time. The stats suggest it's a strong possibility, if not, a likelihood.
Since DataGolf began tracking strokes gained at The Masters in 1983, Scheffller owns the best average strokes gained (+3.25) of any player with more than one appearance.
Augusta National is notoriously a second-shot course and Scheffler is the best second-shot player in the world, leading all golfers in strokes gained: approach (+1.59) over the past 12 months. But perhaps more importantly, he's demonstrated an ability to manage pressure exceptionally well.
Bobby Jones once said: “Golf is a game played on a five-inch course — the distance between your ears."
We've seen how Masters pressure can eat even great players alive, but it doesn't seem to penetrate Scheffler.
Not to play armchair psychologist, but Scheffler's mind and attitude might be as valuable as his generational ball-striking.
So after The Masters, where might a second 2025 major come from?
Scheffler's game travels everywhere. He's won twice at TPC Sawgrass and Augusta National, two courses that couldn't be more different in style. You could make good arguments for him at any of the other three major venues this year: Quail Hollow (PGA Championship), Oakmont (U.S. Open) or Royal Portrush (Open Championship).
Back Scottie Scheffler at the U.S. Open
Scheffler's worst major finish in his past 10 starts was his T41 at last year's U.S. Open at Pinehurst. But that finish appears to be an outlier.
In his three U.S. Open starts before last year Scheffler finished third, second, and seventh, finishing one shot out of a playoff in 2022.
Golfers will make bogeys at the U.S. Open — that's just a fact. Avoiding doubles and triples and bouncing back is key in that event. Scheffler happens to be terrific at both:
- He bogeyed just 9.85% of holes last season, the second-lowest rate on the PGA Tour.
- Scheffler owned a 31.75% bounce-back percentage (following up a bogey or worse with a birdie), also the second-best rate on the Tour.
That's how you play golf within the 'five-inch course.'
Without getting too into the weeds, Oakmont should set up well for Scheffler with its premium on driving accuracy and massive greens with severe run-offs requiring precision iron play.
Should he miss a green Scheffler can turn to his strong short game. A year ago he finished 17th in strokes gained: around-the-greens (+0.316) and fifth in scrambling (66.18%).
The Scheffler-Slam
Now how about this for a legacy: The Scheffler Slam.
Is it possible?
No player has ever won four majors in the modern era (Masters, U.S. Open, PGA Championship, Open Championship). Tiger Woods is the only player to hold all four majors at once after winning the final three majors of 2000 and then the 2001 Masters.
Not surprisingly, I don't like these odds. Taking a flier on Scheffler to win three majors is far more enticing, even though that has only been accomplished twice in the modern era (Woods in 2000 and Ben Hogan in 1953).
Quail Hollow, where the PGA Championship will take place in May, is a bomb and gauge course, which should fit Scheffler's eye fine, despite having never played there. As for the Open Championship, in five career starts, he has two Top 10 finishes (T8 2021, T7 2024). He didn't play in the event in 2019 when it was last held at this year's venue, Royal Portrush.
That's noteworthy considering Scheffler has never won in his first start at any venue.
But expect that trend to end in a big way in 2025. If Scheffler can knock off a pair of majors in 2025 — as I expect him to — it would double his career count from two to four and catapult him on the all-time list from T41 to T21.
It would also place Scheffler just one major behind the likes of Koepka and Seve Ballesteros, while removing all doubt that we're witnessing one of the game's all-time greats.
