The 2025 MLB season is here.
While the Tokyo Series kicked things off, the big day is March 27. And it's coming fast, meaning it's time to write about what we think will happen this season.
Check out our 2025 MLB predictions and find out our staff's favourite futures bets for the upcoming season.
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MLB 2025 predictions
MLB 2025 predictions via NorthStar Bets writers Chris Toman, Jordan Horrobin and Avery Perri.
You'll find picks on who they like to win the major individual awards and which teams they're betting on to capture the Fall Classic.
Make sure to check out the key links below for all your MLB needs.
World Series picks
The favourite: Los Angeles Dodgers (+260)
World Series betting markets
Toman's pick: Philadelphia Phillies (+1,000)
Analysis: The Dodgers are clearly the best team in baseball but a lot still has to go right for them to win the World Series, so I'm not touching them at by far the shortest odds in MLB.
I'm rolling with the Phillies, who I liked ahead of last season's playoffs. They're returning an offence that was top 10 in wRC+ and added to a rotation that was sixth in FIP and third in fWAR.
Jesus Luzardo makes a strong rotation — led by ace Zack Wheeler, the NL Cy Young runner-up — even nastier. And getting more than 121 games out of Trea Turner would certainly help.
Let's not forget about the potential 70 homers and 200 walks they could get out of Bryce Harper and Kyle Schwarber. This is a dangerous veteran team.
Bet on Phillies to win World Series
Horrobin's pick: Texas Rangers (+2,000)
Analysis: The World Series hangover was real in Arlington. Texas followed up its 2023 title run with 78 wins and an early offseason.
But you don't have to squint to see the star power on this team, and with some injury luck it wouldn't be crazy to see everything fall into place (especially in a thinner-than-usual American League).
In the sections below, you'll read about MVP and Cy Young candidates from this club.
There's also the always-steady Marcus Semien, the playoff-dominant Nathan Eovaldi and more than a couple of youngsters to dream on (Wyatt Langford, Evan Carter, Jack Leiter, Kumar Rocker).
Bet on Rangers to win World Series
Perri's pick: Dodgers (+260)
Analysis: This is a boring pick, but it's the right one.
L.A. has warped baseball's competitive landscape with another boatload of elite free-agent signings, headlined by two-time Cy Young winner Blake Snell and Japanese phenom Roki Sasaki.
They'll slot in alongside Tyler Glasnow, Yoshinobu Yamamoto and, eventually, Shohei Ohtani in the starting rotation.
Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman bat alongside Ohtani in a murderer's row no pitcher wants to see. Injuries are the only thing that can derail L.A.'s bid for another title.
Bet on Dodgers to win World Series
MLB 2025 predictions: AL MVP
The favourite: Aaron Judge (+275)
AL MVP betting markets
Toman's pick: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (+1,500)
Analysis: The Toronto Blue Jays’ win total projection has been in the 78-80 range, a number I expect them to comfortably clear. I think the Jays are being slept on after last season’s disaster.
This looks like a bubble playoff team to me, and Guerrero possesses enormous upside as the club’s offensive catalyst.
Guerrero, 26, already has one MVP runner-up season and did this in the second half last year (MLB ranks in parentheses):
- .376 BA (1st)
- 1.127 OPS (2nd)
- 10.1 K% (3rd)
It led to a 165 wRC+ season and a career-best .323 average. Guerrero has been a model of good health, too, playing at least 156 games in four consecutive seasons. At +1,500, this screams value.
Bet on Guerrero to win MVP
Horrobin's pick: Corey Seager (+1,300)
Analysis: I like Witt, but I'll leave Avery to make the case for the Kansas City Royals superstar. Another non-Judge option worth looking at is Seager.
Injuries are the main concern for Seager, who underwent sports hernia surgery last fall (his second one in less than a year). But he played restriction-free this spring, so hopefully the worst is behind him.
The 2023 MVP runner-up has finished in the 96th percentile or better in xBA and xSLG in three straight seasons, per Baseball Savant.
Bet on Seager to win MVP
Perri's pick: Bobby Witt Jr. (+400)
Analysis: Witt and Judge were the only players to post 10+ fWAR seasons in 2024, and the 24-year-old hasn't even reached his prime.
A true five-tool player, Witt can hit for power and average and is a menace on the basepaths.
A 40-40 season is very much in the cards. If you pair that with an AL batting title — which he won last year — it'll be hard to give this award to someone else other than the Royals shortstop.
Bet on Witt to win MVP
NL MVP picks
The favourite: Shohei Ohtani (+125)
NL MVP betting markets
Toman's pick: Elly De La Cruz (+1,000)
Analysis: Here’s what I love about De La Cruz:
- He’s 23 years old and coming off a 6.4 fWAR season (9th in MLB).
- He has big pop with elite speed (67 steals, 1st in MLB) and defence at a premium position.
The projection systems see a step back in his defensive value and no real growth in his offensive game, which I would quibble with.
De La Cruz plays at one of the most hitter-friendly parks in the game, increased his walk rate considerably last season, and has a skill set that few in the game possess.
The Cincinnati Reds shortstop is only 258 games into his MLB career and is coming off a scorching hot spring, for whatever that’s worth.
FanGraphs projects a last-place finish for Cincinnati, which is one thing that could hold him back. But I’m expecting big things from De La Cruz in 2025.
Bet on De La Cruz to win MVP
Horrobin's pick: Ohtani (+125)
Analysis: It breaks my brain a little bit to tout an MVP winner with odds like this. But Ohtani is just that dude.
Last year, when Ohtani was shelved as a pitcher while recovering from Tommy John surgery, I was pretty sure someone else would earn NL MVP honours. Nope.
Authoring the first 50-50 season in league history, Ohtani won his third consensus MVP in four seasons.
Ohtani isn't returning to an MLB mound just yet, but it seems that could happen as early as May. Combining his 50-homer bat with a career 3.01 ERA and 11.4 K/9 as a pitcher is simply unfair.
Bet on Ohtani to win MVP
Perri's pick: Austin Riley (+5,000)
Analysis: Ohtani will probably win this award but I just can't get down with a +125 price tag. So instead, I'll take a flier on the Atlanta Braves' Austin Riley.
The power-hitting third baseman is coming off a down year but had posted three stellar seasons before that, mashing 108 total home runs and never batting south of .270.
He's going to hit behind Jurickson Profar and Ronald Acuna Jr., which is enviable for run production.
Bet on Riley to win MVP
MLB 2025 predictions: AL Cy Young
The favourite: Tarik Skubal (+300)
AL Cy Young betting markets
Toman's pick: Logan Gilbert (+1,100)
Analysis: As a frontrunner ahead of some arms with clear red flags, I don’t mind Skubal at +300. But I’ll recommend someone with more value.
Enter Gilbert, who throws in an ultra-kind pitching environment in Seattle that helps him suppress runs (3.38 ERA/3.52 FIP since 2022).
The Mariners ace is coming off his first 200-inning season, is an above-average strikeout arm, and is elite at limiting free passes.
Gilbert has been consistently good, and another step forward should help him move up the board after a sixth-place Cy Young finish in 2024.
Bet on Gilbert to win Cy Young
Horrobin's pick: Gilbert (+1,100)
Analysis: For my money, the Mariners have the nastiest rotation in baseball. And Gilbert is the best of the bunch.
Last year's MLB leader in innings (208.2) and WHIP (0.887) is a throwback workhorse with pinpoint command.
He hasn't missed a start since debuting in 2021, and he's ranked in the 95th percentile in walk rate in back-to-back years.
Gilbert isn't expected to post gaudy strikeout numbers, but he has a deep and balanced arsenal. In 2024, four of his five pitch types had a whiff rate of 27.2% or better (league average was 25.3%).
Perri's pick: Jacob deGrom (+1,200)
Analysis: This is a risky play, and there's no other way to put it.
deGrom hasn't pitched a full season since 2019 (when he won this award for a second time) and has made 20 total starts over his last three campaigns.
But his ceiling is arguably higher than anyone in baseball, and we've seen veterans return to elite form after Tommy John surgery before. Just look at what Chris Sale did with the Braves last year.
deGrom has the fourth-highest K/9 rate in MLB history and the second-lowest ERA among all starters in the live ball era (min. 25 starts). I'll take the plunge and bet on a triumphant return to form.
Bet on deGrom to win Cy Young
NL Cy Young picks
The favourite: Paul Skenes (+300)
NL Cy Young betting markets
Toman's pick: Yoshinobu Yamamoto (+2,000)
Analysis: The NL has some intriguing value plays, and Yamamoto at +2,000 is one of them.
He has elite stuff, showed flashes of brilliance in his rookie season, and delivered in the playoffs for the World Series-winning Dodgers.
Yamamoto had a strong K rate in his first taste of the majors and did a good job at limiting walks and home runs, something he consistently did during his time in Japan.
You can do much worse than the hard-throwing righty with plus offerings who pitches on the best team in the majors.
Bet on Yamamoto to win Cy Young
Horrobin's pick: Hunter Greene (+2,000)
Analysis: There was a five-week injured list stint mixed in, but Greene's numbers from July onward last year were marvellous:
- 9 starts
- 1.02 ERA
- .198 opponent SLG
- 30.0 K%
Greene's third MLB season — worth 6.2 bWAR despite some time off — was easily his best yet. He was an all-star and a down-ballot Cy Young candidate who posted a .188 xBA (96th percentile).
The Reds righty is a two-pitch pitcher, which is perfectly fine when you sit upper 90s with your fastball and generate a 39.0% whiff rate with your slider (17th among all pitches in MLB last year).
Bet on Greene to win Cy Young
Perri's pick: Spencer Schwellenbach (+2,500)
Analysis: Schwellenbach's solid rookie season was overshadowed by Skenes' historic one but I think he can bridge the gap and then some this year:
- Schwellenbach: 3.35 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, 9.24 K/9 rate
- Skenes: 1.96 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, 11.50 K/9 rate
Schwellenbach righted the ship after an ugly first month in the majors, posting a 2.54 ERA in his last 15 starts. Moreover, the Braves fireballer had a 96th-percentile chase rate, but only a 70th-percentile K rate in 2024.
A few positive tweaks could make him an elite swing-and-miss arm.
Bet on Schwellenbach to win Cy Young
MLB 2025 predictions made at 2:00 p.m. ET on 03/24/25.
