Betting on hockey can be tricky for someone who doesn't have experience with the sport. But identifying a few key NHL betting strategies can make a world of difference.
There are 32 teams, hundreds of players and an endless amount of possible betting combinations any day there's action. A look at the NHL odds board on a busy Saturday night may feel overwhelming to those new to the space.
That's why we're here to help you avoid making rookie mistakes before placing your next hockey bet.
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NHL betting strategies
There are several elements to consider before handing over your money for an NHL wager. And the market you intend to bet on will affect what type of research you should conduct.
We'll review the most popular betting markets and share some important tips so you're more prepared when considering what event to spend your money on.
Moneyline and puck line strategies
Who's the goalie?
We can't stress this point enough, but a good — or hot — goaltender can make all the difference. Goalies steal games all the time, as every hockey fan can attest. Monitoring roster announcements and viewing recent goalie matchups is vitally important to a bet.
Despite every bettor wishing NHL teams disclosed starting goalie information hours in advance, most teams often don't. Instead, head coaches keep this decision confidential until shortly before puck drop to create a competitive advantage.
Beat reporters typically tweet info gathered throughout the day, such as which goalie exited the morning skate first or who's practicing in the starter's net. This is often the best way to scope out the info.
Knowing who the starting goalies are is must-know information. The difference in quality between a starting goalie and a third-stringer can be the difference in a team being labelled as a favourite or underdog.
Who's playing?
Injuries impact the odds of all hockey games. When one or more top players are missing from a team, its chance of winning is negatively impacted, at least in theory.
For example, the Edmonton Oilers were 20-26-10 (.367 win percentage) without Connor McDavid through the end of the 2023-24 season, according to StatMuse. In the same span, the Oilers were 349-242-54 (.541).
If McDavid is slated to miss an upcoming game, betting against the Oilers could be a smart play.
What have you done for me lately?
The NHL schedule is compact, and teams don't have much time between games to resolve issues. If a flaw is exposed or a team is struggling on special teams, those issues may persist for a string of games.
The Philadelphia Flyers provided an extreme example of this in January 2022. During a horrific 13-game losing streak that lasted nearly the full month, Philly was the only team to rank bottom-five in both power play and penalty kill percentage.
On the other hand, the Pittsburgh Penguins had a top-10 power play and penalty kill during a 10-game winning streak that same season.
Recent overall results are important to look at, but reviewing a club's performance on special teams helps take things a step further. A particularly hot or cold power play or penalty kill could create an edge.
How to attack back-to-backs?
The schedule creates competitive advantages and disadvantages for NHL teams. In some cases, a team will play two games in as many nights, or three contests in four days. Fatigue may become a factor, which is usually incorporated into the odds.
A resource like the one provided by More Hockey Stats helps quantify the true disadvantage a team has playing in a back-to-back game.
Naturally, some teams handle the challenge better than others. Using this tool, you can determine when there's a good opportunity to attack a team playing a game in consecutive nights.
NHL totals
Show me the goals
Totals don't have to be complicated. Teams that typically score a lot of goals tend to go over, while teams that don't allow or score a lot of goals tend to go under.
For example, the Colorado Avalanche, Florida Panthers and Minnesota Wild were three of the highest-scoring teams in the league in the 2021-22 season. It's no coincidence that all three squads were among the top overs teams in the NHL, according to Scores and Odds.
When looking at under bets, it's wise to target teams that don't allow many goals.
The New York Rangers, Los Angeles Kings and Carolina Hurricanes own some of the lowest goals-against rates this season. Unsurprisingly, they were among the top unders teams in the NHL.
NHL betting strategies for props
The streakier the better
Outside of the top goalscorers in the NHL, it's hard to truly rely on anyone to score goals routinely. Sure, Auston Matthews and Nathan MacKinnon are going to score goals by the boatload, but how do you hit on players who have longer odds?
One thing to know about NHL players is that they tend to score in bunches. Take Kevin Fiala, for example. Of the winger's first 20 goals in the 2021-22 season, eight came in a 10-game span from late December to the end of January.
What makes Fiala a great example to follow is his shooting percentage. Prior to that scoring outburst, the Swiss star had potted just four goals on an unsustainably low 4.3% shooting percentage, according to Hockey Reference.
When Fiala scored two goals against the Dallas Stars on Dec. 20, 2021, the games following that performance would've been the best time to start betting his goal prop.
Shooting percentages tend to hold fairly steady on a year-to-year basis, and a quick look at his career rate would've suggested a correction was coming. Entering the 2021-22 season, Fiala owned an 11.0% shooting percentage, which tells us that his 4.3% mark wasn't destined to last much longer.
Knowing that goal scoring can be streaky and that shooting percentages don't normally undergo mass fluctuations, it would've been wise to jump on Fiala's goal props at the first sign of a breakthrough.
The Fiala example is applicable to other steady shooters who possess uncharacteristically low shooting percentages.
Who are you playing with?
When looking at assist or point props, target players who play alongside elite talents. One such example is Jonathan Drouin.
Although Drouin isn't a bad player in his own right, he undoubtedly benefits from playing alongside MacKinnon and Mikko Rantanen. Knowing that he skates next to two of the best players in the league, Drouin becomes a much more attractive bet on all his player props.
The best market to take advantage of Drouin's position in the lineup is his points prop.
MacKinnon and Rantanen are sometimes listed with a line of 1.5 points, while Drouin is typically listed at 0.5 points. If you think MacKinnon or Rantanen will reach the stat sheet at least once, there's a decent possibility their linemate will, too.
With this in mind, it may be wiser to take Drouin at his prop than MacKinnon or Rantanen considering the correlation between the pair's production.
NHL live betting
Underdogs and overs
If you made a story of my life regarding NHL betting strategies, a good title would be, "Underdogs and Overs." Aside from being the name of my biopic that'll never be made, it's a good mantra for live betting totals.
When betting overs, typically you want to back teams that feature high-powered offences. The issue that sometimes arises in their games, however, is their opponent can't keep up. In these instances, sometimes you lose your bet because the final score is 4-1 or 5-1 when the total is 5.5 or 6.5 goals.
Live betting allows you to see how the game plays out in order to react to it in real time.
For example, let's say the Panthers and their highly skilled offence are playing against the San Jose Sharks. The Sharks score the game's only goal through the first 15 minutes, which bumps the total down from 6.5 to 5.5 goals.
Once this happens, bettors should look to back the over for two reasons.
A 5.5-goal line in a game involving Florida, one of the league's highest-scoring teams, is great value. Additionally, San Jose's early marker was a positive indicator to suggest it could score enough to push this game over.
The Panthers' slow start shouldn't deter bettors because they score a lot of goals. The Sharks are the less reliable side, but an early goal from them as underdogs is a great development for an over.
NHL futures betting strategy
Think about divisions
Playoff seeding for the NHL is based on divisional ranking. The top seed in each division plays a wild-card team, while the second and third seeds square off in the quarterfinals.
This setup can be advantageous when placing a Stanley Cup futures bet.
The Pacific Division was billed as the weakest at the beginning of the 2021-22 season. It lived up to that title, with the Calgary Flames emerging as runaway favourites from the bunch. The lack of elite competition in the Pacific actually made Calgary a value pick to win the Stanley Cup.
Sometimes, as many as four teams in a different division will have shorter odds than the leaders of a weak division.
But Calgary's chances of advancing beyond the quarterfinals should be viewed as greater than any of the teams within a deeper division (as the Atlantic has been in recent years).
Despite the Flames' lower implied probability of winning the Stanley Cup, they possess much more value on futures markets than the Lightning, Maple Leafs and Panthers.
