When looking to wager on a baseball game, understanding MLB betting weather factors is important.
Arena sports like the NHL and NBA don't require weather research, but baseball is different. The elements can play a pivotal role in a game, which is why bettors need to be aware of its status.
In this guide, we'll explain the ways weather can affect a game, and how to handicap weather in MLB betting.
How to handicap precipitation in MLB betting
Unlike any of the other major-four North American sports, MLB is the only league that will routinely postpone or delay games due to inclement weather. When determining how to handicap weather in MLB betting, it's extremely important to make sure that snow, and more commonly rain, won't cause a game to be rescheduled.
Checking out the local weather for the game prior to placing a wager will allow you to have a better understanding of the elements that can potentially wreak havoc on a contest.
Wind in MLB betting
Wind has proven to be a very important factor for bettors to take into consideration when wagering on baseball.
Specifically, wind can affect game totals. If wind is blowing outwards, the ball is more likely to travel out of the park. Conversely, if the wind is blowing inwards, it's more likely that the ball will stay in play.
The ballpark that best illustrates the effects of wind is Wrigley Field. In service since 1914, Wrigley Field is unique compared to other ballparks because its construction allows a lot of wind in. Therefore, wind direction has had a strong correlation on over/unders.
From 2005-21, overs in games where there was substantial wind blowing outward hit with a record of 77-44-4. Comparatively, unders in contests where there was significant wind blowing inward had a record of 99-69-12, according to The Action Network.
How to handicap temperature in MLB betting
Temperature is another element that can effect MLB scoring.
In the journal, The Impact of Temperature on Major League Baseball, it was discovered that "runs scored, batting average, slugging percentage, and home runs show significant increases" in warm weather as opposed to cold weather. Additionally, walk rates decrease dramatically in warm weather compared to cold weather. Consequently, runs scored in warm-weather games averaged 10.08 per game while cold weather games averaged 8.95.
It's important to be mindful of what the temperature forecast for a game is prior to placing a wager considering the clear correlation between run totals and temperature.
Warning: Don't overreact
While weather can drastically alter the betting outlook for any given game it's important to avoid overreacting to weather.
It's fair to assume that weather conditions are baked into betting lines to some extent. Despite the correlation between warm weather and runs, there hasn't been much of an edge for overs bettors in warm weather, according to The Action Network.
Additionally, under bets haven't been an overly profitable venture in cold weather contests.
While weather will certainly impact your MLB bets, it is just one of many factors to consider.
