Has Vladimir Guerrero Jr.’s 2025 season been a success so far? It depends on who you ask — and what stats you’re looking at.
Guerrero started at first base for the AL in the All-Star Game, and he’s still putting a dent in the ball. But his power numbers have sagged considerably, which might seem concerning ahead of the $500 million extension that kicks in next year.
That said, there are far more reasons to be heartened than spooked by Guerrero’s batted-ball profile. And as the Toronto Blue Jays push for a playoff spot, Guerrero appears likely to do significant damage down the stretch in an attempt to power them there.
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Vladimir Guerrero Jr.'s power outage
Let's get the bad out of the way with first.
- Vladdy is on a 20-homer pace, which is 10 HRs off last year's total. And it's light years behind his AL-best 48 homers from that magical 2021 season.
- His 13.0% HR-to-fly-ball rate this season is the second-lowest of his career. And his .157 ISO is a career low.
- Guerrero is slugging .434 — that's 110 points below last year's mark. He posted a .512 SLG cumulatively from 2020-24.
The power outage isn't merely a product of poorer results on balls in play, though. A major factor is that Guerrero is keeping the bat on his shoulder more than ever before.
He has a career-high 13.5% walk rate, ranking in the 92nd percentile in MLB, per Baseball Savant. Guerrero is also seeing more in-zone pitches than ever before (50.0%), but he's swinging less than ever (41.5%).
For context, Guerrero's career average swing rate is 47.8%. A dip of more than six percentage points is significant.
Interestingly, Guerrero's results on his total bases prop haven't suffered as much as you might think. He's 45-49 (47.9%) on that market this year, after going 77-82 (48.4%) a season ago.
The good news: There's still plenty of pop
When Vladdy does opt to swing, he's still tagging the ball routinely.
Just take a moment to marvel at his Baseball Savant player page (remember, dark red is really good):
Though he's exceptionally disciplined at the plate — arguably to a fault — Guerrero swings with vicious aggression when he does see something he likes.
And though he doesn't possess an elite sweet-spot rate (i.e., batted balls with a launch angle between 8-32 degrees), this year's 33.4% mark is actually higher than his career average (32.0%).
Guerrero is also hitting fewer grounders than in past years, swapping them out for a career-high line drive rate.
| Time frame | Ground ball% | Line drive% | Fly ball% | Pop up% |
| 2025 season | 47.4% | 27.3% | 20.1% | 5.1% |
| Career | 48.5% | 24.9% | 21.0% | 5.5% |
Unless you're Luis Arraez or Jacob Wilson, the first step to success at the plate is hitting the ball hard.
That has never been an issue for Guerrero before, and it isn't now. He might want to trade in some of those line drives for fly balls, but his overall profile is in a great spot.
Oppo power remains untapped
How many of Guerrero's 12 homers do you think have gone to the opposite field?
The answer, amazingly, is zero.
Aside from one outlier, all of Guerrero's homers in 2025 have come off pitches over the middle-third of the plate. Last year, his 30 HRs came from more varied locations (and eight of them went to right field):
The slugger's selectivity is probably a factor here, but it also seems like he isn't being properly rewarded when he does try to put a charge into an outer-third pitch.
According to Baseball Savant, Guerrero has a .358 SLG in his career on pitches located on the outer-third or off the plate.
This year, he has a .407 xSLG on pitches in those zones, but his actual SLG is just .262.
Pitchers are having more success than usual working away on Vladdy. But that might not last.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.'s second-half outlook
I could've written something similar to this at the 2024 all-star break.
Vlad Jr. entered the second half of last season with an .818 OPS, which is exactly where he sits right now.
Then he went on a rampage, posting a .376/.450/.678 slash line from July 19 through the end of the year.
It'd be difficult to project a repeat of those numbers, but it's certainly possible.
FanGraphs' Steamer projection system expects Guerrero to hit 12 home runs from this point forward — which would double his season total — while slugging .494 (60 points above his current mark).
Guerrero has grossly underperformed his expected metrics, so a healthy dose of positive regression would make sense.
Check out how Vladdy compares to some peers with a similar expected slugging percentage (with MLB ranks in parentheses):
| Players | SLG | xSLG | Hard-hit% |
| Vladimir Guerrero Jr. | .434 (91st) | .518 (36th) | 52.9% (21st) |
| Eugenio Suarez | .569 (5th) | .508 (44th) | 50.0% (36th) |
| Kyle Tucker | .499 (28th) | .531 (31st) | 42.7% (121st) |
| Riley Greene | .544 (13th) | .531 (32nd) | 46.9% (66th) |
- Guerrero's actual SLG (.434) is 84 points behind his xSLG (.518).
- Among qualified hitters with a .400 SLG or better, that's the eighth-greatest disparity in the league.
- Also, Guerrero ranks 10th in xwOBA (.402). For context, that's ahead of notable all-star sluggers such as James Wood, Cal Raleigh and Fernando Tatis Jr.
From a prop-betting perspective, Guerrero's uptick in plate discipline might make him a better bet to score a run than to exceed 1.5 bases on any given night.
But as a hitter, he isn't distinctly different from previous years.
The contact quality is still among the best in the game, and there's clearly room for better results.
