The Toronto Blue Jays and Baltimore Orioles close the book on their season series with a three-game set that starts Friday at Rogers Centre.
The pregame narrative: It's been a lost season for Baltimore, but the O's are playing well right now (8-1 in their past nine) and have played the Jays tough this season (6-4 vs. Toronto). Trevor Rogers, who's easily been the best individual story of Baltimore's season, will start against Chris Bassitt.
Check out my Blue Jays best bets vs. the Orioles for Sept. 12, including a prop bet on Ernie Clement.
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Blue Jays best bets vs. Orioles
Best bet: Under 4.5 runs - first five innings (-143)
Bassitt has been lights out at home this year, and Rogers has been lights out everywhere.
Put 'em together, and we're looking at a pitching matchup that should be able to suppress offence.
- Bassitt is 8-0 with a 2.76 ERA and a .688 opponent OPS at home this season. On the road, he's 3-8 with a 5.42 ERA and an .802 opponent OPS.
- In Baltimore on July 28, Bassitt coughed up six earned runs over just 2.1 innings. But earlier in the year, he held the Orioles to one run over 6.0 IP at Rogers Centre.
You wouldn't know how abysmal the Orioles' season has been by looking at Rogers' numbers. He's been an exceptional surprise — it just hasn't been enough for the team as a whole.
Rogers' 5.2 bWAR more than eclipses his five-year career total entering '25 (4.1 bWAR). He has a 1.51 ERA in 15 starts.
The 6-foot-5 southpaw should be able to hold up his end of the bargain in keeping scoring to a minimum. In 13 consecutive starts, he has allowed two or fewer runs while working into the sixth or later.
Rogers has very minimal experience vs. the Blue Jays, but the small sample is an encouraging one.
Toronto's active lineup is just 6-for-26 (.231) with zero extra-base hits against him.
Key stat: This F5 under is 10-6 in Bassitt's home starts this season.
Jays prop pick
Clement over 1.5 bases (+138): It's mid-September, and Clement is still worth a look when a price like this pops up against a left-handed pitcher.
I know I was just highlighting how great Rogers is doing, but Clement is having a surprisingly strong season of his own — at least when facing a lefty.
- Clement has a .331/.360/.558 slash line vs. LHPs this season.
- His 150 wRC+ vs. LHPs ranks 15th in MLB among 151 qualified hitters.
Clement is 1-for-3 against Rogers, so at least he's seen the guy before. And in his past 13 games overall, Clement is 7-6 vs. this prop with an .834 OPS.
Blue Jays best bets made at 8:47 a.m. ET on 09/12/2025.
