I'm fading one young star receiver and backing another in this week's NFL prop bets.
The pregame narrative: Travis Hunter was heavily targeted in his NFL debut and should receive plenty of looks against the Cincinnati Bengals on Sunday. On the other end, I expect Marvin Harrison Jr. to struggle against Jaycee Horn and the Carolina Panthers.
Check out my top Week 2 NFL prop bets, featuring a best bet on Seattle Seahawks running back Zach Charbonnet.
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NFL prop bets: Week 2
Best bet: Charbonnet over 43.5 rushing yards (-110)
It's early, but Kenneth Walker III fantasy owners should be nervous.
Charbonnet was the more frequently used and productive running back in Seattle's Week 1 matchup against the San Francisco 49ers.
- Charbonnet: 12 carries for 47 yards (3.9 YPC), 58% snap count
- Walker: 10 carries for 20 yards (2.0 YPC), 40% snap count
And down the stretch last season, Charbonnet flashed his ceiling.
Excluding a Week 16 matchup against the Minnesota Vikings, where he was battling an oblique injury and played in just 22% of snaps, Charbonnet averaged 76 rushing yards per game in his final four games and went 4-0 against this line.
I think he should gash the Pittsburgh Steelers' suspect run defence on Sunday.
Pittsburgh allowed 182 rushing yards at 4.7 YPC in its Week 1 victory over the New York Jets.
And that's not just a one-off, considering how poor the Steelers were at stopping the run toward the end of last year.
Key stat: Following its Week 9 bye, the Steelers had the seventh-worst defensive EPA per rush and the fourth-highest rush success rate against, per RBSDM.com.
Best NFL picks
Hunter over 4.5 receptions (-107): Hunter was a tremendous two-way player in college, earning Heisman honours with the Colorado Buffaloes last year as a receiver and cornerback.
But his NFL debut was heavily skewed toward offence, and that should continue.
Hunter played 42 offensive snaps (64%) and just six defensive snaps (9%) in Week 1 against the Carolina Panthers. He caught six of eight targets for 33 yards.
Head coach Liam Coen said there will be a slight uptick in defensive action for Hunter against the Bengals, though we should still expect to see him play a ton in the slot.
- Hunter logged 76% of his offensive snaps in the slot in his debut. That was the fourth-most of any wide receiver, according to FantasyPoints.com.
- He was also targeted on 32.0% of routes run, the fifth-most of any WR.
- The Bengals allowed 10 catches in the slot in Week 1, which was the third-most of any NFL team, per Adam Pfeifer of FTNFantasy.com.
The 2025 No. 2 pick should be heavily involved this week.
Why to fade Harrison Jr.
Harrison under 58.5 receiving yards (-115): I backed Harrison to clear his 55.5 receiving total last week, and that smashed, as the sophomore wideout hauled in five of six targets for 71 yards and a score.
But matchups are everything, and I'm going to flip the script and fade him for two reasons:
- Arizona's game plan: The Panthers gave up 179.8 rushing yards per game last year, 38.4 more than the next closest team. Carolina allowed 200 rushing yards at 6.3 YPC to the Jaguars in Week 1, so Arizona should look to run the ball plenty.
- Jaycee Horn: Carolina's top cornerback had Jacksonville on lockdown last week. He allowed just one catch for 11 yards and had a 2.8 passer rating against. Zero Jags receivers cleared this line, and FantasyPoints projects Horn to be Harrison's primary defender.
Last season, Harrison averaged 52.1 receiving yards per game and went 6-11 against this line.
NFL prop bets made at 10:30 a.m. ET on 09/12/2025.
